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Morning Commentary

NO WINNERS

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/26/2015 7:45 AM

By now, you’ve heard all the views about the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare subsidies. However, what you haven’t heard are details of how it could impact you and your family.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are based on a sliding scale, which is set by one’s income and the poverty rate, ranging between 100% and 400%. At the lower end, the government will pay 97% of your premium at the higher end of 10.5%.

Poverty & ACA Subsidies

100%

200%

300%

400%

Family of One

 

$11,770

$23,540

$35,310

$47,080

Family of Four

 

$24,250

$48,500

$72,750

$97,000

Premium % of Income

3%

6.3%

9.5%

9.5%

Wow, this sounds amazing, right. Well, it comes at a price and the money doesn’t appear out of thin air. The health cost curve bends as promised, but not in the direction promised. Moreover, the goal of all Americans having insurance will remain a pipe dream; the ACA subsidies will soar to a grand total of $849 billion over the next ten years.

Cost of “Affordable” Healthcare

2015

2025

Total

ACA Subsidies

$28 billion

$103 billion

$849 billion

Medicaid & CHIP

$49 billion

$106 billion

$847 billion

The number of uninsured nonelderly population will decline from 35 million to 27 million.

So, while 87% of folks on healthcare exchanges get some form of assistance with premiums, there are only 11 million in the system versus 154 million who get health insurance at work and 25 million from other sources. Yet obligations on healthcare insurance providers are forcing a surge in premiums and deductibles, which is a big reason so many Americans have opted against Obamacare.

Economically, the plan means fewer full-time jobs, higher medical care for all, and less service. In addition, there’s the government overreach that could impact other parts of society.

Is Fair Housing Act the Next Clean Air Act?

The Supreme Court decision was split by a (5-4) vote on the Fair Housing Act. It essentially says that lenders, builders, and insurers could be liable for discriminatory charges, even if their actions were not intentional and racially biased. It’s called the “Disparate impact” and it will be a big weapon in the quiver to bring about social justice.

This will leave intact prohibitions in banking and renting, but it could also embolden the push by the administration to create integrated neighborhoods in upper middle-class and wealthy neighborhoods.

By controlling zoning and rental practices, the administration will move swiftly to force developers to include units for families that could never afford them otherwise.

Attorney General Loretta Lynch threw down the gauntlet yesterday:

"Bolstered by this important ruling, the Department of Justice will continue to vigorously enforce the Fair Housing Act with every tool at its disposal -- including challenges based on unfair and unacceptable discriminatory effects.”

It was a historic day that will reverberate through the nation for years to come. It will also put major pressure on the economy and individual prosperity while substituting government policy, which is an intervention for individual effort and opportunities.

Today’s Session

There’s speculation of a Greece deal that kicks the can down the road- a whole five months. It’s ridiculous, but underscores how stakes are high and even a short break could cause a sigh of relief.

There are lots of pockets of weakness in the market in key areas of the economy. In many ways, it’s interesting to hear takes of a bubble when a fifth of the S&P 500 stocks are down more than 20% and these areas are at multi-month lows:

We’ve closed a fair amount of positions, so everyone should have cash.


Comments
Let's see, before ObamaCare there were 45.7 million uninsured, and 270 million insured. Five years later, 11 million of the previously uninsured are insured and the costs to the previously insured have increased dramatically while 75% of the previously in insured, remain so. If this is "Working as intended", the bar was set low.
Of course, "Working as intended" is just another unbelievable statement by the president. Nobody, other than the drafters, read the bill. There were many unlawful changes made to the law by the president to make reduce back-lashes to unpopular provisions.
The worst law ever passed by congress and signed into law lives on, but only for two more years. Thank God!

Chris Reinhardt on 6/26/2015 10:05:19 AM
Charles on this:

Is Fair Housing Act the Next Clean Air Act?, could it be this will tighten the rental market but forcing ever so slightly condo building instead of apartment building to get around the rental aspect especially within the more affluent communities??

Roger Lauricella on 6/26/2015 10:07:57 AM
Affordable Health Care? Let's say I make $100,000 a year so I get no subsidy. My premium for a family of 4 is $2000 a month. To pay $24,000 a year in premiums I actually need to make $40,000 before taxes and deductions since I am no longer eligible for an HSA. My out of pocket is $3500 per family member. If I need to go to an out of state provider my out of pocket is $10,300 per person. ( In Ohio neither the Cleveland clinic or Ohio State's Hospitals take my Gold plan from anthem). So now my $1`00k income is reduced to say $65,000 before taxes for a family of 4. Government is wiping out the middle class and making it impossible to start your own business. You need to make under $50k a year or over $200k to get have a decent after tax, after health insurance income.

Bill D on 6/26/2015 10:52:07 AM
To heck with voter ID. People should have to take a short quiz about the federalist papers and the constitution before they are allowed to cast a ballot.


Brad T. on 6/26/2015 1:12:25 PM
And all this ACA cost for only 10 million people!
Loretta clearly doesn't understand economics. Game over. Going back to 1999 bank lending standards.

Russ on 6/26/2015 1:46:44 PM
 

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