At the start of 2015, countless articles were being published with notions that gold would finally rocket back to its glory highs after hitting $1,400 per ounce in a short amount of time. For most of January, it seemed that the notion would come true before our very eyes. The commodity began the New Year at $1,186 and change. We watched with great vigilance as the price of gold climbed and even made a few smart plays on gold names across multiple services. Nothing was getting in gold’s way. Its value moved higher daily as it broke above key resistance levels, not caring about who was watching.

Suddenly, the price of gold peaked at an intraday high of $1,308.80 per ounce on January 22^nd, closing at $1,301.70. That was all she wrote. For the next two months, the price of gold tumbled to five-year lows, flirting with the $1,140-level for a few days in March. The month of April did not provide much promise for the commodity. By the start of May, it appeared that gold was done since more reports pointed to low inflation.

However, over the past few trading sessions, gold has been showing a stronger pulse once again. Each time it touched above, $1,200, it would drop back down into the high $1,100s, signaling that it was preparing to make a huge move to the upside. Finally, it broke out of its tight trading range and it is up approximately 1.61% for the month, trading right below the $1,220-level in the afterhours market.

A good exchange-traded-fund (ETF) to look at when studying gold is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), it has been moving up rapidly on above-average volumes. As the chart below indicates, GLD is nearing its next key resistance level with its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).This explains the slowdown in the commodity’s rally during the trading session and why it may open slightly lower this morning.

But the future of gold is uncertain. The World Gold Council released a report yesterday detailing how demand for the commodity decreased during the first quarter of 2015 (Q1-2015). Globally, demand for the commodity fell by 1% year-over-year to 1,079.3 metric tons. And demand in India’s consumer market rose approximately 15% to 191.7 metric tons. It was valued above $7.5 billion, but it wasn’t enough to offset the rest of the world. While demand for gold in the global jewelry market slipped, the usage of the commodity in the industrial sector rose by 4% year-over-year.

It has been a tough year for gold, so far; however, perhaps $1,400 is still possible before the end of 2015.

Today’s Session

We round out the end of the week with an absurd amount of economic data for a Friday. So far, the market is reacting with some skepticism as the first indication of May industrial and manufacturing data came in rather soft, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Index. The index came in at a reading of 3.09 which was finally in positive territory relative to the -1.19 from April; however it came up way short of consensus which expected a more robust recovery at 5.00. Manufacturing data was primarily dragged down by weaker exports, thanks to the stronger US dollar, at a time when the Street was expecting a strong springtime rebound. We will elaborate further on the data in the afternoon note.