A ton of mixed messages caused the market to trade with some volatility in today’s session, but the biggest culprit of all continues to be oil. U.S. oil producers appear to have lost their battle with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) over market share, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This comes at the same time the mega oil glut appears to be easing with inventories down for the second week in a row. Still, inventories are very heavy with oil near an 80-year high and gasoline well above its average upper limit. Additionally, retail sales in the United States were flat for the month of April, following an upwardly revised 1.1% rise in March. Ultimately, all figures came below market forecasts driven primarily by a fall in autos, gas and furniture sales. The market initially was set to open the session lower based on this news, but managed to open higher.

The rally was unfortunately not sustainable in the early session as another wave of economic data delivered more mixed messages on the economy. Firstly, there were some expectations for energy-related pressured to appear in the import and export price report, but the pressure wasn’t enough to raise prices in general. For the month of April, import prices fell by 0.3% which was below the consensus estimate for a 0.4% gain. When petroleum products were excluded, prices are still in the negative column at -0.4%. However, petroleum prices overall made a 1.0% gain for the month. On the export side, prices were pulled lower by a decline in the price of agriculture-related products, down 0.7% versus the low-end consensus estimate of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, import prices are down a steep 10.7% while exports are down 6.3%. Oil prices may be making a comeback, but so far, the pricing picture is limited (as the chart below demonstrates). Once again, this is another win for the doves at the Federal Reserve.

Finally, business inventories don’t look quite as bloated as the original signs hinted towards. There was only a 0.1% gain in March that is under the 0.4% gain in business sales for the month, which took the stock-to-sales ratio down to 1.36 from the recovery high of 1.37 in February. However, the improvement is centered in the retail sector thanks to the revisions in March’s retail sales figures. The surge in sales caused the stock-to-sales ratio to slip from 1.47 to 1.46. However, given April’s retail sales report, it’s unclear whether or not this number will keep improving. The stock-to-sales ratios for manufacturers and wholesalers were unchanged, at 1.35 and at 1.30, respectively. Ultimately, the build in inventories in the first quarter was expected to slow second-quarter growth, but this report suggests that the impact may not be as severe as economists originally expected.