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Morning Commentary

Pointing the Way

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/12/2015 9:37 AM

In the last 24-hours, critics of central banks have two different pieces of fodder to vent their complaints.

The art market and bond market both are moving in different directions, the former shows signs of a top or the aftermath of a top.

Last night, an art auction saw old records smashed for a painting and a sculpture.

Pablo Picasso’s ‘Women of Algiers’ fetched $160.0 million ($179.0 million with commission) and Alberto Giacometti’s ‘Pointing Man’ fetched $141.3 million.

Many argue central bank money printing has landed in the pockets of billionaires and they need to spread it around. Consequently, artwork cracking the $100-million barrier has become more commonplace.

$100 Million Artwork

Bond Yields

Global bond yields are taking their cue from Germany where ultra-low yields have given way to a powerful spike that is as quizzical as the fact that the rates were dirt cheap to begin with. In a normal world, low rates reflect low inflation and economic growth expectations. Recently, two-year notes in Germany changed hands at negative yields (you paid them to hold your money) signaling fear and anxiety for the continent.

So, why does the rebound in yields spook everyone?

It’s happening too fast…much too fast. The 30-year German Bund (bond) yield spiked 53 basis points, sending the bund down more than 12% in the past two weeks. I’m not sure if the spike isn’t a reaction; it’s a very abnormal condition, more than the canary in the coal mine screaming for help. On the other hand, higher yields often point to an improving economy.

The news action is spooking our market, so brace for a sloppy start to the trading session with a fair amount of downside pressure.


Comments
There is nothing in the world that the
Germans fear more than inflation, nothing.

They smell inflation and are running,
not walking to the German Bonds so
this is definitely the canary in the
coal mine warning, inflation ahead.

It is clearly a warning.

tom wayne on 5/12/2015 12:50:43 PM
I am amazed. None of the paintings listed would ever find a home in my house for even $10. They just have no appeal to my rational mind.

Perhaps the talk of too much money making it to the ultra-rich has some justification in the art auctions. I remember learning of the turnover in estates in England following the discovery of the new world. The Americas provided opportunity for great wealth in the merchant class during the following couple of centuries. Those plebeians who became wealthy also became desperate to be accepted into English aristocracy, but found it hard to gain acceptance in a class devoted to stature by heritage. They resorted to buying estates to gain titles. Such it appears to be with modern America and beyond. Do we have too many ultra-rich entertainers and tech nerds who are trying desperately to convince themselves they belong in society by buying art that they have been told is classy?

For my taste, God's creation is the ultimate beauty. Those who can capture His creation on canvas or in stone create works which are far more pleasing than works from those who distort nature.

Bob G on 5/12/2015 4:38:37 PM
 

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