Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Morning Commentary

A Little Moxie Before the Big Day

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/8/2015 7:39 AM

After some hesitation, stocks found buyers and we were still able to close amid anxiety, but this kind of move ahead of the jobs report is impressive. Was it smart money or dumb money? I don’t think it was the garden-variety mom and pop investors loading up late Wednesday on a slight weakness yesterday.

By the same token, it wasn’t a lot of money. Once again, the tide stemmed just as the market was on the cusp of a big technical breakdown.

Still, the major indices are all range-bound and seeking a sign that could come this morning with the release of the jobs report. The Street has to be bracing for a big disappointment since the ADP report bombed.

                                 The Dow  Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Performance

Late in the day, consumer credit for March was released. In spite of a net increase of $5.9 billion, outstanding credit card debt was down for the first quarter.

Outstanding credit card debt is now $889.4 billion, down from more than $1.0 trillion back in July 2008.  Considering this is yet another earnings season, companies couldn't move the needle on top line growth. What’s this all about? I suspect it's the dark clouds of uncertainty and the deep emotional and educational scares.

Game of Thrones

In many ways, today’s election in the United Kingdom reflects the political issues and themes that will be prevalent when we go to the polls next year.

The Economist magazine that certainly leans on the progressive side issued this statement in the current issue:

“Our fealty is not to a political tribe, but to the liberal values that have guided us for 172 years. We believe in the radical center: free markets, a limited state and pen, meritocratic society.”  

With that statement, they reluctantly endorsed the Conservative Party led by Tory Chief David Cameron. Largely, due to their worries of Europhobia that could see the UK eventually leave the European Union (EU).

Moreover, some worry that the battle for male, white and working class voters have pulled the party into an anti-immigrant stance. As it turns out, this group has a much lower median income than the national average and there is a sense they are back on their heels.

In the meantime, the British Labour Party led by Ed Miliband wants to remake capitalism and the UK into a fairer society.

Considering the British economy has been more robust than ours and if the conservatives had lost, the shock waves would have been felt in America. By the way, the polls had the election as a toss-up, but it was a slaughter. The same goes for Scotland where an independence fever sparked a resounding victory for the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Today’s Session

The jobs data came in around consensus and the Street breathed a sigh of relief. For the month of April, 223,000 jobs were added as the economy tried to make up for the only 85,000 (revised lower from 126,000) jobs  added in March. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.4% from 5.5% the prior month. Luckily, this wasn’t due to another mass exodus of workers from the labor market. The labor force participation rate improved slightly in April to 62.8% from 62.7%.

Breaking News: The jobs report is a Goldilocks number for the stock market, but for Main Street, a reminder the wage-less recovery rages on as incomes were up 0.1% and just 2.2% from a year ago.  Have your bills gone up more than 2.2% in the past year? The great news, however, is for the stock market because as more people work, they'll spend and that's great news and why the stock market is indicating up so much more.


Comments
There was important economic news this month: First quarter GDP up 0.2 % and 223,000 jobs added in April, the Unemployment Rate steady at 5.4% and the Participation Rate at 62.8%. The worst economic recovery since the great depression sputters along.

Here are some facts that you might not know: If you measure an administration's economic growth starting with the second quarter after their first inauguration, and in constant dollars courtesy of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economic growth for the Obama administration is 13.4%, the G.W. Bush administration 16.5%, the Clinton administration 25.9% and the Reagan administration 20.5%.

On the employment front: the highest number of employed during the G.W. Bush presidency was 146.6 million in November 2007. April 2015 was the highest for the Obama Administration at 148.5 million, an increase of 1.3% in 7 years and 5 months. During that period, 17.3 million people were added to the workforce, the number employed increased by 1.9 million, the number unemployed increased by 1.3 million and 14.4 million left the workforce. This last number drove the Participation Rate down to 62.8%, a number last seen when Jimmy Carter was president.

One way to look at the total employment statistics picture is to compare two periods where the Unemployment Rate was the same. The Unemployment Rate in May 2008 was 5.4%, the same as April 2015. In May 2008 the Participation Rate was 66.1%. If the participation rate was 66.1% in April 2015, which requires moving people from Not in the Workforce to Unemployed, the Unemployment Rate would jump to 10.2%. In other words, a 3.3% decline in the Participation Rate results in a 4.8% decline in the Unemployment Rate.

All of the employment number come straight from www.bls.gov. President Obama supporters enthusiastically report that the Unemployment Rate is at the lowest rate in seven years. The truth is, the Unemployment Rate was driven down more by people leaving the workforce than by finding jobs. As I always say when pundits spew out statistics, the devil is in the details.

Chris Reinhardt on 5/8/2015 11:49:02 AM
 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×