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Afternoon Note

A Tour de “Fourth”

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
5/4/2015 1:31 PM

Of all the Star Wars references made surrounding today’s date, it seemed appropriate to denote that despite very little economic drivers, the market remains in a rally. China's HSBC manufacturing reading of the purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to a 13-month low of 48.9 in April from 49.6 in March and indicates that the country is once again in a contractionary phase and may require further stimulus from its government to stay afloat. In Europe, the region’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.0 in April from 52.2 in March. The nations of Germany, France, and Spain saw their PMIs fall slightly during the month, while Italy's PMI climbed to a 12-month high of 53.8. Earnings are ever so slightly lighter this week, but conference season and corporate investor days are picking up again shortly, which could mean further volatility for some presenting firms.

Domestic data was virtually non-existent today, save for one major reading on the industrial sector. Thanks to higher orders for aircraft and motor vehicles, March factory orders increased by 2.1% over February and were in-line with consensus estimates. February’s reading was initially at +0.2% which was revised lower to -0.1% and ultimately March’s monthly gain marks the end of a 7-month losing streak. Those seven consecutive months of declines provide the most striking evidence of just how difficult business has been in the manufacturing sector, primarily since the stronger dollar weakened exports and lower oil prices troubled the energy sector. Nevertheless, the sector got a big boost by new orders in civilian aircraft while motor vehicle and parts order increased by 6.0% over the prior month for one of the strongest gains during the recovery. However, when major transportation orders are excluded, core orders were unchanged compared to a 0.1% gain in February, with the latter revised down sharply from an initial reading of +0.8%. Energy equipment orders rebounded by 4.8% in the month, following a long streak of declines including an 18.5% drop in February. This is good evidence for some stabilization in the energy sector soon. Ultimately, the pop in March ends Q1-2015 on a positive note for the factory sector, but the early outlook for Q2-2015, which is expected to get an outsized boost thanks to the end of extreme winter weather, has not been favorable noting that regional (Fed districts) and industry reports (ISM) all reporting softness. The main takeaway continues to be that the factory sector is still a big drag on economic growth.

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