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Afternoon Note

GDP & Fed Causing Market Woes

By WSS Research Team
4/29/2015 1:35 PM

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst

The big countdown to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is upon us and the market is having a tantrum. Stocks have consistently tumbled during today’s session with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting triple-digit losses and the NASDAQ off by roughly 1.0%. The latest build in crude oil inventories decelerated substantially from the previous weeks, although inventories remain at 80-year highs. Nevertheless, the slowdown in inventories caused the price of oil to pop nearly 4.0%, with the price per gallon just below the $60-level. The US dollar is also taking a massive hit today after the first quarter reading for the US gross domestic product (GDP) came in well below consensus at a pathetic +0.2%. This compares to a reading of +2.2% in Q4-2014 and the +1.0% consensus estimate for Q1-2015. Weather issues, as well as weak exports thanks to the strong US dollar caused economic growth to collapse, and in turn, today’s equity indices.

Aside from this morning’s GDP disappointment, there was one other notable economic release and it should’ve given the market a lift. In another positive check point for housing data, pending home sales increased for the third month in a row, rising by 1.1% in March and outpacing economist estimates at 1.0%. Ultimately, this is indicative of what would be a very welcome third consecutive gain for final sales of existing homes, which surged 6.1% in the latest report. On a regional basis, strength in pending sales was centered on the South – the largest housing region. Pending sales in the South jumped a whopping 4.0% from the prior month for a year-over-year gain of 12.4%. Sales in the West were also strong, increasing by 1.7% for the month for a year-over-year gain of 15.6%. The overall change in pending home sales versus the same time last year is a healthy 11.1%. A pick up in the sales of existing homes is hopefully giving the signal that improvement is occurring in the new home market which currently remains weak. Last month’s weak report for housing starts and permits is still troubling to economists, and despite this positive report, remains the elephant in the room.


Comments
I find it funny when the weather issue is quoted. California, the intermountain west, Great plains, southeast and had a seasonal to mild winter. Granted from NYC to portland Maine it was tough but winter there is rarely an easy haul. Are we to believe that the greater Boston area alone is responsible for the vast majority of GDP growth? If that is true our country is really in trouble.

Scott Manhart on 4/29/2015 2:21:03 PM
 

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