I see a schoolboy when I think of him,
With face and nose pressed to a sweet-shop window,
For certainly he sank into his grave
His senses and his heart unsatisfied,
And made -- being poor, ailing and ignorant,
Shut out from all the luxury of the world,
The coarse-bred son of a livery-stable keeper --
Luxuriant song.

-W. B. Yeats

On this tax day, I know many Americans who live in the richest nation in the world who are poor, ailing, and in many cases, ignorant to why they're being “shut out from all the luxury of the world.”

Like Yeats' ode, these same Americans continue to vote for those who they think love them, yet leave them “with face and nose pressed to a sweet-shop window.”

You see, this beloved government keeps taking in more and more money; and yet the economic standing of most Americans remain the same. Somehow, it's the fault of those paying taxes and not those collecting taxes.

Six-Month Tax Payers $1.42 Trillion

• Individuals   $642 billion +9.7%
• Payroll          $509 billion +3.7%
• Corporate    $133 billion +12.8%
• Other           $137 billion +5.5%

Right now, the U.S. government is on course to spend $482 billion, more than it will take in for the fiscal year in October (FY15). Since the pace quickened in March, I wondered if it might point to yet another year of spending $1.0 trillion more than the amount of revenue taken in. In March, the Federal government spent $52.9 billion, more than it had taken in, which created a deficit that was 43% higher than a year ago. Revenue climbed 8.5% in March, but a spike in Medicare spending and a sharp decline in revenue from Fannie and Freddie, the spending soared 13.6%. These are two key shifts:

• Medicare spending associated with ObamaCare +9.4%
• Defensive spending in accordance with sequester -3.0%

If you’re like me, you were hit harder this year more than ever, but some people got breaks.

It might be surprising to know there will be $1.3 trillion in tax breaks allowed under the U.S. tax code.  Among the biggest tax breaks: Employer paid healthcare, lower dividend and long- term capital gains and mortgage interest and earned income tax credit

Politics (not as usual)

Race and gender politics are the order of the day. For the Democratic Party, it feels like a slam-dunk.  However, non-whites will always vote as a complete monolith block, even as our nation becomes a more racially and ethnically diverse country.

In fact, there were dramatic shifts in Hispanic and Asian votes, while the white and black votes barely nudged between 2012 and 2014.

Hispanic	Dem	GOP
2012	69%	31%
2014	63%	37%

 

Asian	Dem	GOP
2012	74%	26%
2014	49%	51%

If those results don't worry democrats, then a recent Pew survey should. Hispanics and younger blacks are no longer slam-dunks for the party.

Democrat Advantage Over GOP	Hispanics	Blacks
Younger Millennials (18 - 25)	21%	56%
Older Millennials (26 - 33)	28%	64%
Younger Gen X (34 - 41)	28%	67%
Younger Boomers (50 - 58)	35%	71%
Older Gen X (42 - 49)	36%	75%
Older Boomer (59 - 68)	42%	81%

It seems to me that more people, including non-white voters, are going to vote with their pocketbook rather than against offensive and injustices of yesteryears.

Moreover, let’s hope there's a real effort to get back to the basics...It's the Economy Stupid!

Today’s Session

The major indices are extending their rally so far this morning with green on the screen. The New York Fed released its Empire State Manufacturing report for the month of April. The report indicated that general business confidence has plunged in the district to a reading of negative 1.19 from a prior reading of 6.90. This is devastatingly below the consensus estimate of 7.0 and the second time the index has come in with a negative reading in the past 23 months. New orders were down to negative 6.9, primarily due to the strengthening US dollar decreasing demand for US goods. Unfilled orders also contracted, coming in at negative 11.7. Surprisingly, shipments did not contract as much during the month. There is still hope for positive change, however, new orders need pick up or else we may see lower employment in the region.

Below are some of the companies that reported yesterday afternoon and this morning.

Company	Date	EPS	Consensus	Revenue ($M)	FY EPS Guidance	FY EPS Consensus
CSX	14-Apr	0.45	B 0.01	3,027	Q2 0.53-0.54	Q2 0.58
INTC	14-Apr	0.41	in-line	12,781	-	2.14
BAC	15-Apr	0.27	M 0.02	21,421	-	1.39
DAL	15-Apr	0.45	B 0.01	9,388	-	4.74
PNC	15-Apr	1.75	B 0.04	3,731	-	7.24
TITN	15-Apr	-0.20	M 0.01	491	0.01 <	0.02

 

Comments

It's very clear from the data that what happens in the nation's bedrooms and with our immigration policies has more to do with future social, political, and economic than anything else. Ben Wattenberg urged a pro-natalist policy over 25 years ago, but nobody listened. In fact, he was pilloried by his liberal friends. We better start listening soon, or by 2060, the American century will be over. Dennis Howard on 4/15/2015 10:36:23 AM

We can eliminate Earned-income Tax Credit. It is one waste we don't need. $70 B saved! Jane on 4/15/2015 10:51:25 AM

Regardless of ethnicity, securing the basic freedoms this country still enjoys will determine our future. We must elect leaders that will put the good of all above self. Frances Wiggins on 4/15/2015 11:22:13 AM

we are a country of individuals.. we do not work for the good of the government. ok maybe some do, japan works for her mother land, china, germany, poland. this is what make USA differant, IMHO _ JJA_ on 4/15/2015 1:31:34 PM

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