As volatility continues to be the order of the day, you’re going to hear more and more about how this is like 2000 and 2007….that’s not quite the case. Sure, it’s unnerving and frustrating, but the fact of the matter is that we've been spoiled.

Right now, the S&P 500 is on the path toward the volatility that was last seen in 2011, and 60% of the big moving days have actually been to the upside. Still, losses in general, or when the market gives up a couple hundred points, people get worried. However, when we give up big chunks of ground in a short- period of time, as we've seen lately, everyone starts to make sure they have an eye on the exit doors.

Yet, anyone vaguely familiar with last year's rally understands the key characteristic was to buy on the dip. How many investors took gains and losses and regretted it a few days later? There's no doubt a lot of folks had regrets because in hindsight, folks would have peaked at the absolute top if they had not picked the wrong top earlier.

It's called rationalizing:

S&P moves 1% + in 2015
12 Days Up	8 Days Down

Also, in the past six-years, people have talked a lot about how this rally lacked conviction because of light volume. Well, be careful what you ask for as volume is beginning to creep higher and it’s not associated with a mad dash to own stocks.

Iran Nuke Talks

These talks, which began 18 months ago, remind me of those old Miller Lite beer ads and posters where the comedian Rodney Dangerfield was on both sides of the argument.

"Less filling"

"Tastes Great"

From day to day, it's hard to figure out what side America is on as President Obama works to cobble together a deal with Iran that most think will mean an official countdown to the bomb.

 Picking Sides

The dream of a single dominant Middle-East kingdom has haunted the region, even before the death of Muhammad and it continues to threaten the region today. While ISIS has graced headlines, Iran has the wherewithal to make it happen and is on the move. The battle lines have been drawn and the war has begun through its proxies, including the Houthis of Yemen. In response to this rebel’s group coup, Saudi Arabia has launched a counter-strike with several other Arab nations.

(Interestingly, in the early 1960s, Saudi Arabia sent troops into Yemen to fend off invading Egyptian forces who at the time fancied the idea of controlling an Arab revolution. Yes, boys and girls, these things go back a long way.)

Let's face it, save for oil, the west might be curious bystanders, but enough oil comes from the region to make everyone worried; disrupting 3.4% that comes down the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden, it could have a major impact on prices.

In the meantime, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices climbed yesterday after the release of the government supply data. While inventories rose more than expected, 4.8 million barrels, production declined to 9,386,000 a day, only the second decline this year. The interesting thing is that stocks climbed with WTI for the second session in a row, lifting off the lows of the day as crude oil popped.

The result is oil finished its trading session up 5% and closing at $50.02.

Moreover, no one knows where this all goes, suffice to say oil could surge if things get ugly, and even a deal with Iran would still take time for new supplies to hit the market, and it is unlikely Yemen or any of the other fires burning in the Middle-East would be extinguished.

Weekly US Production of Crude Oil

Today’s Session

The market is tense this morning ahead of the big jobs report which comes with a twist as the market is closed tomorrow. How long should we be going into the number, knowing the next trading opportunity is Monday? Moreover, what are we rooting for? I'm rooting for a strong number; the winning by default and money printing creates a false narrative that's not resonating on Main Street.

On that note, initial jobless claims plunged to 268,000, certainly hinting at not only potential job gains, but maybe higher wages as well. Now, the Fed might want to wait for the scenario to play out completely. Wages moving higher isn't a guarantee of households spending more (see cheaper gasoline). I was pleasantly surprised the trade deficit swooned to $35.4 billion. The street was looking for $40.8 billion.

We actually swung to a surplus on trade with OPEC. It's the surpluses with South America, however, that makes the economic morass of that continent critically important to American businesses and workers.

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