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Morning Commentary

Retirement Dilemma

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/25/2015 6:28 AM

There's a new movement afoot to ditch 401K retirement plans and replace it with a government run- supervised program. The rationale is that the average fund has only $18,000 and it's been a bust. While I have an issue with that number, it’s not 401Ks that have failed Americans- Americans have failed themselves.

People keep dipping into these plans by using them as piggy banks; the same way they were once used for home equity loans and refinancing. In 2010, Americans had taken out $60 billion prematurely and in 2011, $57 billion.

The fact of the matter is, while there is a need for more discipline, the real losers are those who have not established a 401K.

According to the Empower Institute, we need 75% to 80% replacement of current income to live the retirement of our dreams.

Replacement Income

With 401K Retirement Plans

74%

Without 401 Retirement Plans

42%

Replacement Income

With Financial Adviser

82%

Without Financial Adviser

55%

However, holding too much cash is the biggest retirement mistake. In savings portfolios (that aren't qualified plans), cash levels on average is 35%, and within qualified retirement accounts, cash is at 55%.  I get that people missed the bottom and now feel as though it’s best to wait and buy at the top. However, the focus has to be on the next 200% move, not the next 20% to 30% correction/bear market.

Last night, after the close, Kraft (KRFT) was put into play with news of a potential bid from the Brazilian investment firm 3G Capital. It is more than Mac & Cheese; however, the day before, some would argue the stock was fairly priced with a 17 price-earnings ratio (PE Ratio) or expensive changing hands with a 4.0 price-earnings to growth ratio (PEG Ratio). The point is, this is a company that will throw-off serious cash for centuries. Since borrowing is so cheap, it seemed like a no-brainer...in hindsight.

The no-brainer part is that you have to be invested, which is different from trading as the (KRFT) above shows. There is no doubt a lot of people stopped out of short-term trade when the stock got under $63.00.

Today’s Session

Today’s durable goods order report from the Census Bureau provided something more than just disappointment. For the month of February, new orders declined by 1.4% month-over-month which is quite the reversal from a positive 2.0% gain in January and is also below the +0.7% consensus estimate. This is very frustrating. I just don’t believe businesses are going to pump up the volume, especially with Obama’s policies making it harder for them to operate and manufacture new equipment.

Though the major indices are indicating slightly higher, yesterday’s selloff into the close is still worrisome.


Comments
We already have a government run-supervised retirement program: it's called Social Security. How well has it done compared to my 401K? 401K is fully funded forever and Social Security has given all of our money to Treasury to spend and is going broke.
Government is just looking for another source of free money and will undoubtedly force (tax) people to put in more than 18K.

Tim Tougas on 3/25/2015 10:11:05 AM
So, the American public has failed themselves by not investing properly in 401K plans. Hmm, I'm taking issue with this. How about the blue collar wage earner that is in a position where they are forced to be more concerned with the here and now, as in putting food on the table, keeping a roof over their head and clothes on the back of their families? And doig everything possible to insure that their kids have a better future than the parents? The 401 system demands that a person educate themselves about the workings of it to be able to reap the benefits... Sometimes there just isn't enough time in the day to do that. I have a 401 fund that has just barely above the national average amount in it, 4 years from retirement. In '08 when everything went south I was pretty angry about the whole situation because the indicators were there but got no help from the administrators of my fund. Seemed they wanted to take my money and invest it for me but not willing to do anything else such as advise me. So at that point I switched my holdings to mostly cash and forgot about it, being a single parent there were more important things that I had to deal with.
Just disgusted...


Jim Hubbard on 3/25/2015 10:17:47 AM
As for a new program to replace the 401K system how about an improvement in something that is already in place? Social Security? Raise the threshold of payroll deductions to 10 million instead of $118,000, lower the rates to put a few more dollars in the pockets of those that can use it, and outlaw the practice of gov't borrowing from the trust fund to keep it secure. And raise the benefits to a point that makes Social Security a viable retirement income......

Jim Hubbard on 3/25/2015 10:26:28 AM
Government run 401K retirement plans are an outrage and opposition should be the lead on every news show

Craig on 3/25/2015 11:32:35 AM
Jim, While your suggestion might sound reasonable on the surface, it would be a disaster in practice. By implication you are suggesting that the government invest our money in the private sector. We are already near a negative tipping point with the crony capitalism that already permeates our system, and giving the government what would amount to trillions of dollars to dole out as it sees fit in the private sector would shove us over the edge into the chasm of anarchy.

The only correct solution is to partially privatize Social Security.

pmcw on 3/25/2015 12:41:23 PM
Absolutely frightening. The omnibus bill just passed has a clause that allows the government to seize under funded retirement plans. The language in the omnibus regarding retirement (pension) plans is so broad and vague it could cover private plans, State plans, and 401k's. My red flags are rising signaling a pattern of language and behavior on the part of the government to absorb lots of cash via preset crisis control measures. I'm not a conspiracy guy but as the great Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. once said, " Nothing in the world is more dangerous than a sincere ignorance and a conscientious stupidity".

Russ on 3/25/2015 1:18:49 PM
Bottomline -- I don't trust the government, be it Congress, the executive branch or the Supreme Court. 'Nuff said.

John Robinson on 3/25/2015 5:27:27 PM
if I only had a job,i would participate. but then again I cant im 75

richard stowe on 3/25/2015 7:18:16 PM
It seems the Government is talking out of both sides of their mouth. Whats new? As there is also a budget proposal to limit (stop) contribution into 401K accounts with accumulated balance above $ 3.4 million. So if you are really diligent all your life and add to your account and invest smartly you are considered an over achiever and prevented from getting to far ahead of rest of the under achievers.

Rick on 3/25/2015 8:30:54 PM
I do not trust the Government either. The people with IRA's they raid like Piggy banks is plain stupid, like a old co-worker of mine once did, she spent all her 401K on her husband to BUY an old classic car, how's that for saving and intelligence? A lot of Americans DESERVE to be in soup kitchens and I for one do not want to buy the soup.

Joe Cayman on 3/25/2015 9:28:53 PM
 

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