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Morning Commentary

Wage-Less Recovery

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/6/2015 9:59 AM

Past recoveries were haunted for a lack of job growth, but this recovery will go done in history as the wage-less recovery and it presents a bunch of conundrums for the stock market and frustration for the rest of America.

Average hourly wages of $24.78 were up just a penny month-to-month and dashed any hope that the big spike in January of 0.5% was the start of something big. Now, it looks like maybe January was an anomaly considering December saw a -0.2 decline in wages.

Wages are the key. Median household incomes are below levels before the Great Recession and this is why confidence readings continue to trail the increase in stock and home values since 2000. For the market, it doesn’t matter as much if more people earn less than the net amount in the cauldron to be spent (and remember those earning less tend to spend more and save less), still increases were underscored this morning with earnings from Footlocker (FL).

On that note, there has to be a big continuing tide of improved economic circumstances that triggers a virtuous cycle that not only helps the stock market, but makes Americans feel like Americans.

Yes, there is too much free stuff and self-pity going around that allows or enables people to chill out at home playing video games and maybe taking periodic breaks to head over to Footlocker. Consider how 317,000 fewer people reentered the job market in February versus a year earlier, coupled with the 178,000 departures from the labor force, and its clear, dropping out is too easy.

Bloomberg 1

This is why the lower unemployment rate is a major disappointment this morning and in many ways overshadows the 295,000 jobs created.

 The results today will not alter the action at the Fed, even if the market isn’t quite sure this morning.


Comments
What role does the supply and demand for labor play in the stagnant wage growth? Does surge in supply of immigrant labor constrain wage growth?

A. S. Wattson on 3/6/2015 1:43:59 PM
today's good jobs number is another example of "good news is bad news". If the jobs number had been a bad one, the market certainly would have reacted poorly. So we get a good number and what does the market do? It reacts poorly. Is the market telling us that good numbers like this give the Fed reasons to raise interest rates?? Oh, for heaven's sake, the Fed should raise a quarter point in June just to get it over with. Let the market know that the Fed is alive and well, paying attention, and after 5 or 6 years of the economy gradually getting better (plow-horse) we can stand a quarter point. Get it over with. Doesn't mean they will raise interest rates @ every meeting after that. They won't. But let's get off "zero". Everything will be OK.

Dick Denecker on 3/6/2015 3:12:19 PM
 

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