In a day light with domestic economic data, we can always rely on the rest of the world to move our markets for us. The major indices pulled back to session lows after Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, addressed US Congress on the dangers of a possibly impending nuclear deal with Iran. The speech was arranged on the initiative of House Speaker John Boehner and was not authorized by the executive branch. In the end, the markets experienced further losses on fears that conflict in the Middle East may once again be at the forefront of many people’s minds. All the worry, however, is giving oil prices a boost since more Middle East conflict fears typically equate to a pop in prices. Oil futures have returned above the $50 per barrel level, up more than 2% for the session so far. It isn’t likely that today’s speech will cut the long-term rally short, but it is further evidence of how fragile the market is to geopolitical headlines.

The US market was virtually devoid of data and releases during today’s session. However, Gallup reported an interesting reading for February with its Economic Confidence Index (ECI). The index edged lower to a reading of 1 in February from a score of 3 in January – both readings represent the first time economic confidence was in positive territory since Gallup began tracking confidence back in 2008. The index is the average of two components: Americans' ratings of current economic conditions and their views on whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of plus 100, if all Americans believe the economy is excellent or good and getting better; and a theoretical minimum of minus 100, if all Americans say the economy is poor and getting worse. Through February, 27% of Americans said the economy was “excellent” or “good” while 27% said it was “poor”. This resulted in the current conditions component coming in at a reading of “0” in February versus “1” in January. Meanwhile, overall economic outlook score decreased by three points to “2”, after 49% of Americans saying the economy is "getting better" and 47% "getting worse." The average of the two readings gives us the monthly ECI score of “1”.

According to Gallup, with experts predicting that gas prices will continue to rise into the spring, and assuming gas prices affect how Americans view the economy, it could be difficult for economic confidence to recover from this recent momentum without some significantly positive news in other parts of the US economy.