Afternoon Note
Despite apparent strength in the pre-market, the major equity indices have been relatively mixed for the session. After the large pullback in recent weeks thanks to oil, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 have almost completely recovered losses and are close to testing new all-time highs again. In fact, today, the Dow Jones came within 90 points of 18,000 which with six trading sessions left in 2014, there’s still a possibility it will get there. In the meantime, oil prices are tanking once again after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates pledged to keep pumping the same about of crude and blamed the non-OPEC producers as the culprit for oversupplying the market in the first place. Crude prices touched down below $56 per barrel again, and natural gas experienced the worst session in some time, down nearly 8.0% to the lowest price in roughly two-and-a-half years. The rally remains quite surprising in light of the housing data released mid-morning.
November looks as though it will pan out to be a relatively weak month in terms of housing. Existing home sales had appeared to be showing some progress, but unfortunately not in November. The number of existing home sales dropped by a steep 6.1% to an annualized rate of 4.93 million; this is at the low end of the consensus range of 4.97 million to 5.35 million homes. November’s weather was relatively mild across the US, but nevertheless ended a 5-month sequence of 5.0 million-plus rates. Weakness during the month was rather broad, with all four geographic regions showing single-digit declines month over month. The good news is that the weakness in sales is not inflating the supply of homes for sale. Due to a drawdown of homes of the market to 2.09 million from 2.24 million in October, the national home inventory level held steady relative to sales at a turnover of 5.1 months. Still, lower prices don’t seem to be helping sales much; the median home price declined for the fifth month in a row, down 1.1% in November to an average price of $205,300. Year-over-year, the median pace is up 5.5% at roughly the same level since March, but growth had been the double digits all throughout 2013. Lower mortgage rates, some now below 4.0% for 30-year fixed loans, as well as strength in the jobs market don’t seem to be driving up home sales either. After several iffy home reports so far this month, the all-important new home sales number will likely be weaker than expected as well. New home sales will be released at 10AM tomorrow.
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Sir, just wanted to let you know I really enjoy your daily posts. Very informative and entertaining. Thanks, Tom Tom Schaefer on 12/22/2014 3:19:11 PM |
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