Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Morning Commentary

Crude Jolt to System

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/11/2014 6:52 AM

Stocks opened under pressure and never put up any kind of fight. The carnage was evenly distributed, but the epicenter was oil. Already under pressure, the weekly inventory numbers point to a build in supply rather than a drawdown. The implication is that there was weaker demand. Remember, thus far; the narrative is cheaper oil, solely because of a slowing global economy outside of the United States, but what if demand is declining here, too?

It is bizarre. A major asset class could lose 40% of its value in a flash, and not rankle or worry investors of other assets. There is no way I could have imagined crude testing a vital support point, and now entertaining the most outlandish downside targets. Heck, if someone says ‘West Texas Intermediate’ could hit a dollar, I might not bat an eye. However, crude oil is oversold and it will see something of a snapback rally. This does not mean there will not be more of a downside first.

Through it all, no one knows why this is happening.

Sure, it’s basic supply and demand; there are more sellers than buyers. However, what is really driving this meltdown of black gold is that a few months ago, it was supposed to head towards $150, as people worried that ISIS terrorists would conquer Iran and Syria.

So, now crude has to hold at $60.00, or we could start hearing calls for $30, $40, or even lower – and entertain them.

Fiscal Responsibility and the Lame Ducks

Maybe this year and next, there will not be a government shutdown, as the House will get a chance to approve an omnibus spending bill through September 2015. The 1,600-page bill is making a lot of people unhappy, especially those who were overjoyed the day after the mid-term elections, because many thought this would be a brave new world.

Instead, the bill is chock-full of goodies and gobs of questionable spending, such as $5.4 billion to combat Ebola.

The $1.0 trillion spending bill reminds us of the challenge ahead to rein in spending which is on an unsustainable trajectory. In fact, to save social security and other safety nets that Americans expect, even mandatory spending will need to be tweaked and sacrifices made. Mandatory spending was less than 27% of the budget in 1965, and it will climb to 63% by 2024.

 

What's really amazing is how much waste and fraud runs rampant in government spending, especially in those programs designed to help the neediest in society.

A shocking November 7 audit of food assistance programs discovered fraud and misallocation of funds.

Food Assistance Fraud

Program

% of Budget

$2.4 Billion

Food Stamps

3.2%

$1.7 Billion

National School Lunch Program

15.3%

$923 Million

National School Breakfast Program

25.6%

$206 Million

WIC

4.6%

 

Then, there was this shocker from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) of Federal programs designed to help working Americans with lower wages.

The Earned Income Tax Credit saw $14.5 billion or 24% of the total budget paid in error, and up to $7.1 billion might have been misallocated in the Additional Child Tax Credit program; that's 30% of its budget.

Low Income Aid Fraud

Program

% of Budget

$14.5 Billion

Earned Income Tax Credit

24%

$7.1 Billion

Additional Child Tax Credit

30.5%

The level of abuse is amazing; just Google “food stamp fraud” and you will see headlines that read, “Teacher in Atlanta steals $8 million.” The list is endless. Here is my theory on all the fraud. I think the government deliberately leaves in ways to steal or game the system as a way of keeping people tethered to the system.

When people think they are getting over on the system, what they are giving up in terms of self-determination is too high of a price to pay.  My goodness, how do 25% of funds in a federal program go missing? It sounds like something that happens in Gaddafi’s Libya.

Today’s Session

The futures are indicating higher although there is no telling how this early session will pan out. Overnight, the European Central Bank (ECB) lent $162.17 billion to banks in its latest cheap credit program in an attempt to get Europe's stagnant economy moving again. In addition, Russia’s central bank has raised rates to 10.5% from 9.5% in an effort to stop the collapse of the ruble, and policymakers also cut the country’s growth forecasts sharply thanks to the decline in oil prices. Oil is down once again today, and it’s likely that the commodity will fall below $60 per barrel at some point today.

Domestically, retail sales increased in November and import/export prices declined yet again. The weekly jobs data was better than expected, as initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 in the December 6 week to 294,000 from an unrevised 297,000 in the previous week. However, the 4-week average was up slightly to 299,250 and is still about 15,000 claims higher from the start of November. Continuing claims tell the same story, up a steep 142,000 to 2.514 million in lagging data for the November 29 week. This is the actually the highest level since mid-August. There are no special factors in this week’s report, so this points to less momentum than expected in the labor market for December so far.


Comments
crime still pays, and quite well.

jim currier on 12/11/2014 10:20:58 AM
Big picture..if $100+ oil is bad for worldwide growth and has been holding back the world economy, then sub-$60 oil SHOULD be a shot in the arm of positive "energy". I continue to believe that the US will outperform except for China but they will get a boost as they are big importers. My question is how long will it take for the medicine to take effect? I have been lightening for months and expect equities to go lower before the good news turns things around. What say you?

Franko on 12/11/2014 10:43:31 AM
Social Security is the only true entitlement I can think of the employee and employer paid it. It is a saving account for retirement. Is it how a Federal Government Ponzi scheme, because they have robbed that savings. Waste, fraud, and abuse must be dealt with!

DBeeson on 12/11/2014 3:38:24 PM
We'd better start worrying about the long term future in this country or it will be all over for America within another 20-40 years. Looking at the latest birth trends, births could be cut in half within that time. If we can't find jobs for Gen X, Y & Z, those trends won't change. The slippery slope has just gotten slipperier.

Dennis Howard on 12/11/2014 6:21:29 PM
The government is so corrupt I can't believe it. I know where parents drop their children off for free breakfast in their big SUV with a Starbucks coffee in their hand. Our country is badly broken. It makes me very sad.

Charlene Voss on 12/11/2014 8:47:40 PM
All 546 persons in Washington running our "gov't" should be on Medicare just like the rest of us,,,,, this is UNCONSITUTIONAL.

Joe Cayman on 12/23/2014 11:17:45 PM
 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×