Morning Commentary
Big Blue, otherwise known as IBM, reported a disaster of a quarter this morning, sending its shares lower and crushing the stock market in the process. It should be noted that IBM has been in trouble for quite some time now. Big Blue was slow to jettison poor performing units and slow to be an aggressive buyer in spaces like the cloud. I'm not using IBM as a proxy for the economy, or even tech, or at least not new tech.
Nonetheless, the market is on edge, as it should be during earnings season. In the meantime, the economic backdrop is improving.
Like a lot of the economic data last week, most news outlets, including financial, didn't think much of the 6.3% surge in housing starts. Those that mentioned it, just shrugged it off to more apartments being built, but the story is a lot more than that.
The rate of growth for multi-family is still remarkable, but single family was up month to month, and year over year, and was two-thirds of the total.
Housing Starts September |
One-Family |
Multifamily |
Total |
646,000 |
371,000 |
Previous Month |
639,000 |
318,000 |
Year Ago |
582,000 |
281,000 |
The problem with the economy is that this recovery is where it should have been four years ago, and the key characteristic is the lack of wage growth. On the contrary, wages are lower than the start of the recession. That's only changing slowly as the National Association for Business Economics’ (NABE) quarterly report compiled from leading economists point to not only slow rising wages, but a nice divergence between hiring and firing.
NABE |
|
Added Headcount |
32% |
Lowered Headcount |
7% |
No Problems Finding Workers |
66% |
Raised Wages |
24% |
I'm not forcing the issue as earnings season is crazy all the time, but with recent weakness and angst, companies that miss will be greeted with harsher selloffs. I do see the economy getting better and I think investors should start to consider midterm elections in two weeks. Yesterday, President Obama was greeted with jeers and lots of people walked out of a campaign stump appearance. He might not want to pull a Bill Clinton, but might not have a choice and that could mean lower taxes and fewer regulations.
Below is a chart of some of the companies that reported this morning:
Company |
Ticker |
EPS (Actual) |
EPS (Est) |
Rev (Actual $M) |
Rev (Est $M) |
Community Bank |
CBU |
0.59 |
0.56 |
$92.50 |
$92.65 |
Halliburton |
HAL |
1.19 |
1.10 |
$8,701.00 |
$8,525.59 |
Hasbro |
HAS |
1.46 |
1.45 |
$1,469.90 |
$1,470.28 |
IBM** |
IBM |
3.68 |
4.32 |
$22,397.00 |
$23,372.72 |
Phillips Electronics |
PHG |
0.28 |
0.26 |
$5,547.00 |
$5,591.48 |
SAP AG |
SAP |
0.84 |
0.82 |
$4,256.00 |
$4,230.69 |
V.F. Corp* |
VFC |
1.08 |
1.09 |
$3,520.00 |
$3,572.46 |
Valeant Pharma |
VRX |
2.11 |
1.99 |
$2,056.20 |
$2,062.08 |
* = Open WSS Idea **= Dow Component
Tweet |
4/25/2024 1:16 PM | Don't' Bury me, Yet! |
4/25/2024 9:27 AM | THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
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