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Afternoon Note

Where Did All the People Go?

By Jennifer Coombs, Research Analyst
9/5/2014 1:36 PM

The major equity indices were less negative following the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary for the month of August this morning. Primarily because it looks like war may be averted between Russia and Ukraine (at least for now) as a ceasefire agreement was reached between Ukraine and Pro-Russia rebels. After President Obama spoke on the situation in Russia/Ukraine and the continuing issues in Iraq with ISIS, the markets moved back into positive territory. For now, the jobs report is giving the public little optimism, but investors are content that this data may keep the Fed at bay for some time.

In a very broad nutshell, the employment situation for August was quite disappointing. However, many economists believe the number should actually be higher and that the figure will be revised to reflect more upside a month from now. Nonfarm US payroll jobs increased by only 142,000 following a 212,000 increase in July and a 267,000 increase in June. The revisions for June and July were also disappointing, lowered by 28,000 jobs. Economists were much more optimistic and expected a 230,000 gain in August. The unemployment rate declined back to 6.1% from 6.2% in July and was in-line with expectations. However, the lower number of job additions coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate suggests a drop in the labor participation rate – oddly enough, the drop was to 62.8% in August from 62.9% in July. However, despite the employment situation allegedly getting better, there has been no improvement in labor force participation since the Great Recession.

Private payrolls increased by 134,000 in August after a 213,000 gain in July. Professional and business services added 47,000 jobs while employment in health care increased by 34,000. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in August (+22,000) and construction employment continued to trend higher by 20,000. On the other hand, manufacturing employment was unchanged after 28,000 jobs were added in July. Auto manufacturers laid off fewer workers than usual for factory retooling in July, and fewer workers than usual were recalled in August; this led to 5,000 lost jobs in August after 13,000 were added in July.

Overall, the latest numbers support the notion that the doves of the Fed should maintain loose monetary policies.


 

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