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Morning Commentary

Black Swan or Black Clouds?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/18/2014 9:44 AM

Watch my show: Making Money With Charles Payne Fox Business 6PM

Just as the market rally was ready to prove it was unstoppable, someone in Ukraine used a surface-to-air missile to bring down a civilian aircraft. This horrific incident occurred just hours after President Obama ratcheted up economic sanctions on Russia for its involvement in civil strife in Ukraine.

The shoot-down of the plane wobbled the stock market, but one has to wonder why? Is there a sense of further escalation, is there a sense of hopelessness with respect to America's ability to influence and sway the world.

Could that dip in the market, which gained downside momentum into the close as Israel announced intentions to send ground troops into Gaza, reflect anxiety of the inability of America to keep the world safe or safer?

"The bullying of small countries by big ones, the trampling of justice and decency in the pursuit of national aggrandizement, and reckless indifference to human life, should have no place in our world."

Tony Abbott
Prime Minister
Australia

While President Obama played it cool with an obligatory sound bite, 'May Be A Terrible Tragedy,' despite the potential loss of 23 Americans, and yet another bald face act of aggression against the sensibilities of mankind, Australia Prime Minister Tony Abbot reacted like a leader in pain for his citizens (at least 27 Australians were on board) and the world.

While there is no doubt that Abbott's comments were aimed at Vladimir Putin, they could be applied to many nations in the world that are only becoming more emboldened.  Moreover, I think Abbott's comments need to be heard by the west while they're still positioned to turn the tide because global bullies are awfully popular at home. Just as President Obama's job approval plummets, Vladimir Putin's is soaring in Russia.

Don't think the leaders in China aren't watching this all play out, as they plot to secure all the oil in the South China Sea. A recent Pew poll of 44 nations asked if they were "concerned" about China's move to own disputed tiny islands would "lead to conflict." Threatened, the nations overwhelimngly replied: "Yes".

Increasingly, it feels like the world is becoming a powderkeg, and increasingly it feels like the last-line-of-defense that has been the role of America is fading. Maybe yesterday's one-two geopolitical punch wasn't the black swan for the stock market, but make no mistake, the clouds over the world have gotten darker. The great news is that fundraising does not miss a beat, campaigning does not miss a beat, and demonizing political opponents does not miss a beat.

Of course, Vladimir Putin does not miss a beat, either.

Today's Session

The market's resove is on display this morning, but there isn't a lot of conviction. On the earnings front, corporate America continues to knock the cover off the ball, although real organic growth is worrisome and bottom lines are boldered by buybacks.

Mixed Messages

> General Electric (GE):
* All six business segments grew backlog, but there are problem areas. Service saw five of six segment increase, but operating margin of 5% is lower than 8% margins for equipment which experienced declining growth in all segments and 6% growth markets margins.

> Johnson Controls (JCI):
* Building business was down and automotive was higher, but largely on surging demand from China.

> Kansas City Southern (KSU):
* A great quarter (in model portfolio) as management observed, "During the second quarter of 2014, KSU experienced strong revenue growth from the shipment of grain and automotive. KSU's core carload franchise continues to show strength in line with the general economy."


Comments
V.Putin. Think Crimea, Georgia

Greg Ross on 7/18/2014 10:01:46 AM
The following are responsible:
Vladimir Putin
Russian Insurgents
US Foreign Policy

Anders on 7/18/2014 10:32:39 AM
Obama's lack of foreign policy has caused the disaster in the Ukraine. god bless the leadership in Israel and Australia. Americans need to be polled on whether the world is a safer place with Obama. November gets more important every day.

Cliff Lofgren on 7/18/2014 10:43:38 AM
Geopolitics abhors a vacuum, our president has created such vacuums so
why are we surprised at the results.....

Your new show, first class......

thomas R. Wayne on 7/18/2014 11:07:52 AM
US policy

L J Mutch on 7/18/2014 11:22:20 AM
Valimir Putin is using the rebels to stir the pot and acquire more control and land to rebuild his Russian Empire all because of Obama's weak policies and head long rush to collapse the USA which he hates so much.

Jim Cuff on 7/18/2014 11:28:18 AM
Putin is responsible.

Ed Lalor on 7/18/2014 11:42:39 AM
Shared culpability. Putin put the gun into the hands of the baby.

BJORKMAR on 7/18/2014 12:09:56 PM
Vladimir Putin, Russian Insurgents, and Obama's anti-war policies, (look whose his Secretary of State is) tells us everything. He's a community activist after all, he doesn't solve problems, he creates them. Wink, wink!

Katherine on 7/18/2014 12:36:58 PM
US Foreign Policy (or lack thereof) is to blame. Stepping back from world dominance & shrinking our military to pre WWII levels gave Putin the courage to invade Ukraine.

Sylvia on 7/18/2014 12:39:09 PM
All 4 are to blame equally.

carrrolan on 7/18/2014 1:07:55 PM
Malaysia Government or Malaysia Airlines. At the time of the Malaysia Flight 17 crash the US FAA had in place a NOTAM, (Notice to Airmen) to avoid Ukraine airspace. FAA only has authority on US flights. Malaysia Transport Minister claimed the route over Ukraine was an approved, safe route.

Frank on 7/18/2014 2:08:14 PM
If this were baseball, maybe we could work out a trade: Tony Abbot for Obama and three future moderates.

Patricia Flynn on 7/18/2014 2:55:31 PM
all of the above are responsible for the shoot down

john on 7/18/2014 5:28:27 PM
Dear Mr. Payne,
Putin bears the responsibility for the lost souls. Our President should have made a more forceful speech and called him what he is, a murderer.


Doug on 7/18/2014 6:56:02 PM
insurgents! and no one else
unless they are puppets

grass is not always green

steve on 7/18/2014 11:09:18 PM
Unquestionably, Barack Obama prepared the way for the downing of MH17 when he offered to send MRE's to the Ukrainians as his way of helping them defend themselves. What were they supposed to do, throw them at Putin the next time he came around? This incredible sign of weakness was a signal to Putin that he could get away with anything in his actions in Ukraine, including shooting down civilian airliners. The Russians have done it before. Why not try it again?

Dennis Howard on 7/19/2014 1:24:58 AM
Putin is playing Obama like a drum. The rest of the world is watching the total lack of leadership in the US

mike t on 7/19/2014 7:40:38 AM
Charles, crossing Ukraine, are commercial airlines aware of the war zones there in Europe ?

Michele Norfleet on 7/19/2014 10:17:55 AM
The odd man out in your list is US foreign policy. The others were all present in the Ukraine. Obviously, Putin's army and the insurgents are there, each fighting to be the local land baron. Malaysian Airlines chose to be there and place themselves and their passengers in harm's way. But, US foreign policy is not about attacking commercial interests or harming bystanders. Since there is no active policy of involvement, then US foreign policy is clear of blame. US foreign policy could clearly have done some things to mitigate the conflict, but with a president who is laughable to all his peers and who has no coherent foreign policy, US foreign policy is a nonentity.

As an aside, it is humorous how the liberal press is stuck on this one. They constantly berated George W for being disliked by their heroes in failing socialist regimes, but George W never had the problem of any foreign leaders ignoring or laughing at him. Obama has both problems with EVERY foreign leader, and we don't really hear anything about that from the biased press.

Bob G on 7/20/2014 6:49:33 PM
Putin and the rebels are both at fault. Putin for allowing the rebels to get the rockets and the rebels for firing without effectively targeting, in other words they're out of control. Finally the president for not taking a firm "Reaganesque" stance and letting Russia know the US will not tolerate their aggressiveness. Then take aggressive action, defensive rockets in Europe within days to let them know we mean business

Gene Ulrich on 7/21/2014 10:44:22 PM
Who is the blame, interesting question. Since Russia supplied the weapons and training they enabled the behavior. If one of them pushed the button or the trainee pushed the button the folks sadly are still dead. I don't think all the big sounding ideas are going anywhere. Consider this, had we supplied weapons and training to folks and they pushed the button on an airliner we'd be just as guilty. Again if we get involved in giving arms we do loose control of how they are used and could be just as guilty as we would have them be. They supplied arms and once done have not control over what is done with them

Charles R Mabbott on 7/22/2014 1:43:04 PM
Putin is the main cluprit, he wants the Ukraine!
But why is a commercial airline flying over a warzone?

Mario I on 7/22/2014 5:59:56 PM
Putin. The US bears some responsibility because the urged Ukraine to join NATO. Like Putin wants NATO in the back yard? Obama is ball less, just like Syria, do you really think they got rid of the gas?

Joe Cayman on 7/29/2014 8:18:35 PM
 

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