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Question of the Week

According to the latest Gallup poll, investor confidence in the stock market has not rebounded in the same degree as the stock market – not even close.
Are you more confident in the market today and its ability to grow your retirement savings account (401k, IRA, etc) then before the crash?
Are you less confident in the market today and its ability to grow your retirement savings account (401k, IRA, etc) then before the crash?

Morning Commentary

Scorned and Burned Americans Warm Up to Social Security

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/7/2014 6:23 AM

Since March 2009

149%
Stock Market

14%
Reliance on 401Ks

"Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me." Because that's the message from the latest Gallup poll that shows investor confidence in the stock market has not rebounded to the same degree as the stock market - not even close.

In fact, considering 54% of non-retirees were still relying on retirement savings accounts (401Ks) in 2008, , it is somewhat amazing that only 48% feel that way today, even as the Dow has rallied 150% from its March 2009 bottom.

Although the Dow has drifted from an all-time high, confidence has not climbed back to the level of 54% of non-retirees using the stock market as their primary source of economic preparation for their golden years. The most recent crash seems to have been the last straw; there has been a mini-crash in some of the high flyer stock names.

 

 

This happens to be a tough time for the market, which adjusted for inflation, is almost unchanged from its high of January 2000 (Dow at 16,084 in 2014 = 11,722 in 2000).The fact is investor trepidation has actually played a major role in the market's lackluster performance since the tech crash, as they were easily shaken out of positions, and have been willing to chase performance.

That old adage about buying low and selling high, rivals wash behind your ears for commonsense things we never really do.

Pushing Around the Little Guy with the Help of the Little Guy

Of course perched over all this action, are those Pharaohs of Wall Street that play the public like marionette puppets, and play the market like a fiddle. They get to move the needle through deep pockets, and even deeper messaging. Yesterday, David Einhorn's assessment that Athena Health (ATHN) was a bubble stock sent shares crashing lower. Why would holders of that stock sell unless there was little conviction about the stock to begin with? Of course there comes a point when the pain is so terrible, people simply bite the bullet.

Knowing they have the clout to start this type scenario has resulted in a landslide in social media stocks, where companies that beat estimates are crushed, and companies that offer higher guidance are crushed as well. Companies that seem to deliver everything, which usually makes Wall Street happy, watch their shares get sacked. (We have a few of these ideas open, and it is a challenge to ask people to hold, even though in the past, similar situations have ended with stocks recovering.)

Pharaohs & Riches

$3.5b David Tepper
$2.4b Steven Cohen
$2.3b John Paulson
$2.2b James Simons
$950m  Ken Griffin
$850m Israel Englander

Of course, the money these guys pocket is also something of a put off for regular people trying to get their money to grow in this stagnant economy. It is hard to fathom how any single person could earn a billion dollars in a single year (an amount that would have landed a hedge fund manager in fifth place last year), coupled with talk of the game being rigged, and stocks that were cheered weeks ago, are being jeered today. I get why people would be leery.

However, long stretches of time, like 20 years or more; have more than proven that stocks are the best bet in town. Now, young adults think its savings accounts, and even after the ugly bursting of the bubble, more people would rather invest in real estate than in stocks.

This is not the best morning to tout the benefits of owning stocks, but relying on social security (31% say it is the best bet for retirement) is nuts! Your golden years will be anything but that, if you are banking strictly on those government checks to afford you a wonderful life versus, living from week to week. If you own Fire Eye from $100, or Athena Health from $200, you are probably cursing my name right now; but I bet even those names prove to be better retirement vehicles than social security.

Today's Session

I think we are in the midst of classic capitulation of certain tech stocks, and this flush out will not only create amazing investment opportunities, but should relieve pressure for the boarder market which has resisted a contagion impact. The problem is finding bottoms when panic sets-in; throw away the charts and stay calm.


Comments
The market may be up 150% from its 2009 lows but its really only up 16% from its 2007 highs ( roughly 2.5% / year). Sooo, its easy to say that in 20 years you will be better off.....unless 20 years from now is right after the next 2008 event.
If the 2000-2014 gain is a wash due to inflation, then you are barely treading water as you take the risk of the market. Washington needs to get its "head out" and let the private sector have a well defined playing field that doesn't sell off everytime someone sneezes.

brian on 5/7/2014 9:37:11 AM
I put little if any confidence in 401K or IRA's for retirement planning. Delayed taxes now on what is certain to be substantially higher taxes in the future. Add in the management fees for mutual funds and the return is minimum over the years. The only one to benefit will be the taxman and the social mouths he will try to feed.

Mark A. Conter on 5/7/2014 11:04:37 AM
I am currently just as confident in the market as I have always been. History has proven that stocks will recover from anything -- a Great Depression, countless recessions, an oil shock, 20% inflation, etc. etc. ad nauseum. The problem today is simply a lack of patience.

Wall Street has been so focused on short-term performance that the long-term view that history provides is almost totally ignored. This attitude has drifted down to the average investor over the years to their detriment. As investors, as opposed to traders, we need to take the long-term view to be successful. We can learn from the likes of Warren Buffet whose favorite holding time is forever.

My portfolio is currently down a shade over 4%. That does not bother me in the slightest. I'm taking the downturn, especially in the NASDAQ, as a gift. I always keep a little dry powder, and when a name I currently own gets crushed for no apparent reason, to me it just went on sale and it's time to buy more. If I'm lucky, I can average my cost down! Two or three years from now I will have made money.

That's my take. Thanks for the opportunity to express it!

Spence Arnold

P.S. I always enjoy your commentary, Charles, especially your take on social issues! And blending those with song lyrics and the like is very unique and enlightening!

Spence Arnold on 5/7/2014 11:22:20 AM
Time has always been on the side of well run businesses that do not let labor demands get the better of the business. Tech businesses depend upon being at the leading curve of techiness and less on out of control labor. Through economic crashes and wars a well run business survives and thrives. Inflation/currency/economic crashes, and wars or rumors of wars are the issues that are worrying the general populace. i would think if a person is overly concerned about these issues they should invest in companies that will most benefit from those conditions. Business will survive, commerce ceases to exist without them.

one last comment to quote Tom Clancey "If lies stained walls, they would have had to change the name of the [White House] years ago." (I think circa 1990 in a book of his)

David Huber on 5/7/2014 11:22:28 AM
Hey Charles, my grandaughter just finished an economics course in High School where stocks were barley mentioned! Teacher did say she invested in Govmt bonds and that was good. My Grandaughter's portfolio I'm sure was larger in stocks than the teachers. I'm starting to think I'm a rare bird getting my income from stocks.

Joe Pryor on 5/7/2014 12:26:30 PM
I don't think the question for me has anything to do with my confidence in the market. As an engineer. I can look at the market and analyze the numbers to understand that investing in well run companies will always pay off well over time. The question for me is whether I am more or less confident in myself to make the right decisions, and I am more confident. I am more confident to recognize the crash and get out before halfway, and to recognize the rebound and get back in early.

The other question for those who trust the mutual fund managers, is whether they are more or less confident in those fund managers. If you trust the fund managers and give them your money, I thank you for making it easier for me to make money (at your expense). I agree with the previous comment about the failure of the stock market over time IFF your investment strategy is mutual funds where the big winners are always playing with someone else's money and profiting off someone else's lost future. Going with mutual funds is the only advise I think is worse than government bonds.

P.S. IFF means "if and only if".

Bob G on 5/7/2014 2:35:04 PM
I saw Wolf of Wall Street. That is enough. People can easily go to prison for a few million dollars.

Me on 5/7/2014 2:39:42 PM
The Pharaohs of Wall Street's behavior worries me a great deal. They create big movement in the market - both up and down - and appear to have a great deal of control over what happens. I would appreciate your opinion on the cause and effect of these men.

Connie H on 5/7/2014 3:40:27 PM
 

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