Morning Commentary
Hosting Varney & Co This Morning Fox Business 9:15
Yesterday at 8 A.M. local time we saw the start of the running of the bulls in Pamplona, Spain. This world-famous event exhibits six bulls, bred for fighting, released to charge down narrow medieval streets in Pamplona. In spite or because 15 people have been killed since 1924 this spectacle attracts would be human racers from all over the planet.
The running of the bulls looks like a mismatch on paper, as bulls have weighed as much as 1,380 pounds, but humans have guile and fear on their side.
Fear is a great motivator and it plays a role in all our lives to varying degrees. One could argue the opposite of fear is faith since it mitigates fear or makes it completely irrelevant. These days few would argue there is much faith in anything allowing fear to exist with even more power than usual. Fear has reduced elected leaders into bunch of small-minded, small-goals oriented folks that only move the needle through fear of real and counterfactual probabilities.
Few things that are important to all people are promoted in a positive manner.
Instead of defeating obstacles in efforts that would make us conquer fear, we are always sold on the notion of avoiding pain. People are fighting major diseases and ailments with pills rather than change of diets, exercise and other lifestyle habits. Alleviating pain has become so much more important than finding cures. The same is true with our education system, which routinely pumps out mediocre students that have been passed through on weak curriculum and inflated grades. Our economy gets propped up on bailouts, stimulus and unlimited schemes to pump money into banks all in hopes of appeasing Main Street with reduced pain - but no prosperity.
So, while faith could be considered the opposite of fear, pain is like fear in the sense it can motivate but can also work hand in hand with fear. The avoidance of pain means the avoidance of greatness.
I write about this often, but we are seeing how this ruins the economy each day. In our July newsletter I go farther and discuss fear and indifference: a lethal combination. Ask your rep for a copy or send me an email request.
Tapering Has Begun
More than 200,000 private sector jobs were created last month, but more than half (112,100) came from low paying leisure and retail. While ‘a job is a job' makes for a great mantra in a country starved for any kind of job creation, it doesn't do enough to move the economy forward. Be that as it may, there are critical numbers to consider.
A different kind of tapering has begun. Business tapering in anticipation of harsh and complicated rules from the new healthcare law are just a part of this trend. People that want to move ahead in life have to accept lower pay and maybe soon fewer hours. Sure, the part of the healthcare law that fines businesses $2,000 for each full time worker not covered would be a job-crusher and stall the economy. What makes it even more nutty is full time is considered 30 hours.
Hence the spike in part time employment.
Some people simply don't see how it's worth working less than 30 hours at meager hourly wages.
Hence the spike in discouraged workers.
This leaves people that really want to work knowing, even as the lower rungs of the economic ladder have become more slippery it's supposed to be a first step in a long journey. But others just have to get money - they have bills to pay and families to feed.
Hence the spike in those holding multiple jobs.
So, the headline saw good job production vis-a-vis recent trends with adjustments to the last two months that added an extra 70,000 to the workforce but digging deeper it was a dismal number. The U-6, also known as the real unemployment number, surged to 14.3 from 13.8, its highest level since February.
The Fed will see this as good - but not good enough to stop printing.
Comments |
Greatest fear: Loss of freedom, not only personal autonomy, but loss of freedom as a Country to the various forms of tyranny. As far as how much individuals should suffer (to save our Country and retain their freedoms), well... at the very minimum, the 50% sitting on the "couch of entitlement and complacency" should get off their "self-satisfied sofa" and make some kind of contribution to society that's more productive and less sponge-like, as in absorbing all they can from the efforts of their fellow citizens. Even a little effort and giving back would go a long way. I worked my way through college eating dry Cheerios and drinking Tang in my dorm room, without a cell phone and many of the other conveniences most are accustomed to these days. They could start with something comparable to that. I survived; I expect they might as well. Linda Titcomb on 7/8/2013 10:43:32 AM |
Charles: My greatest fear is the lack of exuberance, adventure, excitement, or well being. If we could get our moral compass back on track, and a good dose of common sense we would be okay. Frances Wiggins on 7/8/2013 11:19:55 AM |
Fear: Collapse of the monetary system. How to right the ship with minimum pain: 1) Stop printing money 2) Real cuts too government spending. 3) Reduce Federal Debt. z on 7/8/2013 11:21:29 AM |
I try to be optimistic but what President Obama is doing to the Military is just tragic. The cuts in Combat Brigades is just going to take us back to before WWII levels. We are headed down a very dangerous path. I do not know if we can recover Bob Medkeff, LTC, USAR Retired on 7/8/2013 11:35:15 AM |
Greatest fear: Generations of Americans taking for granted the freedoms and liberty that we fought and died for. There are legions of people in the country who feel no connection or investment in the success of the country. This is not good and does not bode well for our future. We must find a way to get people reconnected to the American Dream and how exceptional it is to live in America. As someone who has traveled the world, I am always forever grateful to land back on American soil. What we will have to endure: there is a storm coming. An economic storm of correction. I suspect that the correction in federal spending will not take place until the global markets force it upon us. The greater question will be who wins the war of the takers vs the makers. Michelle on 7/8/2013 11:37:48 AM |
Why is it that the private sector is always being asked to make sacrifices? The public sector just continues to grow, waste money and become more inefficient. A formula for disaster that would have brought our country to its knees long before this, except for the private sector which has to make a profit or die and continues to be the host for which the government parasite is allowed to survive through taxation and regulation. Philip on 7/8/2013 11:44:34 AM |
Charles I enjoy seeing you and especially your takes on the current market and suggestions for investment ideas. Regarding Pamplona, I visited Spain when I graduated from dental school as a personal reward for a lot of hard work putting myself through school. The bulls are released every morning and even in my day a ticket was required to keep the number of idiots down to a reasonable number as the streets are very narrow. They do this for the week of the festival and as these bulls traditionally have not seen a human on foot in their lives only on horseback they become much more dangerous to the matador. The thing is, even at age 24 I was unable to complete the whole week of drinking and no sleep lasting only 4 days. The people running are generally severely hungover. Saint Fermin must really be involved in protecting the stupid. I was also in Spain when Franco died and would like to revisit as so much has changed. Thanks for your note Bill Edell Bill Edell on 7/8/2013 12:34:33 PM |
What I fear most is that we will become so comfortable with being told what and how to think that we will finally lose our ability to reason at all. Pain levels that are high, but not so high that they inflict permanent damage, could be necessary to turn this absurd mess around. Patricia Flynn on 7/8/2013 2:30:51 PM |
Greatest fear: That the country is devolving into mutually exclusive cultures that at their very core tout their differences over their similarities versus embracing the power of those very differences that make us all American. We are Balkanizing both economically and culturally. The economic storm that appears to be on the horizon has the potential to cement the current cultural stagnation in a way that I fear that my children will fall backward in station and success and it will not be until my grandchildren come along that this will change. Patrick McKinney on 7/8/2013 3:50:55 PM |
What scares me? This headline from Breitbart: "Citizens Receiving Food Aid from Federal Gov't Now Outnumber Full-Time Private Sector Workers" I'm afraid we have reached the proverbial tipping point. Dan Knudson on 7/8/2013 10:20:52 PM |
What I fear most has already come to pass. It is that we have a generation that has been taught a false history and therefore the fate of this country is sealed. No nation in history has survived the moral decay that is marked by acceptance of open homosexuality and promiscuity. Our youth have been taught a history that actively and intentionally excludes this truth. The specific fear that I have is that the nation will slip quietly into oblivion without a violent revolution which could restire morality and prosperity for several generations. How much pain am I willing to face? The path we are on leads to economic collapse, mass starvation, and gang warfare in the streets.That will come if we continue to try to avoid pain of being individually and corporately responsible for our morality. The alternative is acutally less painful, but involves the assasination of seveal Supreme Court justices and federal judges who have taken it upon themselves to rescind the tenth amendment which was supposed to guarantee the people the inalienable right to set their own morality as a society. Whichever way we go, their will be blood in the streets. It is just a matter of whether the country survives afterward. Bob G on 7/9/2013 8:18:29 AM |
My greatest fear is that we have progressed too far downhill in terms of public apathy and ignorance of what is really going on, and the reluctance of the media to take risks with their ratings to get the truth out there. As an old-time investigative reporter, I'm appalled by the lack of courage of moderate to conservative folks in politics and the media to raise on honest hue and cry about our moral and social decline. Just ask: how many would actually sign the Declaration of Independence if rewritten in today's terms? My guess is: darn few. Dennis Howard on 7/9/2013 10:38:12 AM |
Our governmental bureaucracy has become a criminal super-magnet. It is the most profitable and easiest place for criminals to prosper. The sheeple of our country are the majority now and are so intellectually lazy that the lying criminals can stay in power. My fear is that this may end up in violence when the sheeple stop getting what they want and have been promised. Chris DeGreef on 7/10/2013 10:09:08 AM |
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