|Nate Silver as "Man of the Year". That sounds appropriate for a magazine that lost touch with reality decades ago.|
Mr. Silver certainly qualifies for the "of the year" part. Why is it that so many fools want to exalt people with some success to sainthood before their time. Let's give it some time. Real superiority plays out in decades, not in months. It is like the sick joke of giving Obama a Nobel prize. It did not exalt Obama nearly as much as it abased forever the meaning of the prize when given to a person who had done nothing, especially after a similar gaffe regarding Gore. (Even some of Obama's campaign ads this year stressed how he should be reelected to get a second chance after doing nothing in the first four years.)
Mr. Silver has done some fantastic statistics work, clearly advancing well beyond the state of his chosen art at a very young age. BUT, let us not confuse cause and effect. A statistician is a measurer of society, not a mover. When ahyone tries to leverage his success at measuring society into credit for moving it, then the lines are crossed between cause and effect and between competence and pending irrelavance. Mr. Silver's public statements about his personal world views support doubt whether he clearly understands the big picture of cause and effect (his views seem to defy world history).
His name should not be even considered until he has a couple more decades of success under his belt. We need to see if his methodolgy will withstand the impact of future perturbations of the system which result from analysis of how he measures the system. Whenever statistics prove valid, too many fools try to manipulate the measured parameters to create success without regard to whether what is measured is the cause or just another effect correlated to the cause. They confuse cause and effect. The result is that the items measured start to diverge from real causes of the effect, as people focus on what is measured rather than what is desired.
For an example, consider testing in education. States instituted testing to measure progress in teaching kids so they could improve education. Educators, concerned about the results of the tests, stopped teaching real world skillls in order to prepare students with test taking skills. The result was higher test scores at the same time as competency of graduates decreased. The tests originally measured knowledge which correlated to the effectiveness of the schools, but the testing perturbated the system such that the test results were no longer correlated to the desired outcome.
Bob G on 11/29/2012 11:40:32 AM
|Charles , this maybe off topic, but I thought you might like to know. Your commentary on FSN about the election results and why the GOP lost is enlightening and refreshing. It's interesting to get perspective from a black conservative.... Why do think the market will rise?|
Bruce Emery on 11/29/2012 5:14:18 PM
|Morsi or Zawahiri brothers!!|
f lights on 11/29/2012 6:20:59 PM
|I'm in accord with commenter Bob G's assessment.|
Particularly his, 'A statistician is a measurer of society, not a mover' re: Mr. Silver.
Mr. Silver's intelligent though his age and naiveté is glaringly obvious with his ignorance of history.
A particular statistical method is used far too long too often when every indicator shows it's irrelevance and dated methodology.
A quick example would be the BLS unemployment #'s whereas during Bubba's tenure those unemployed for 1 year or longer are NOT in the unemployment kitty.
Mr. Payne has used, which many readers are in accord with are the far more accurate not-seasonally adjusted U6 unemployment rate, respectively.
The problem with Mr. Silver being head of ANY periodical is his being young which brings with a contorted ideology, beliefs.
Sure in the short term his youth may build some energy amongst the pool of writers and ever fewer readership.
Though I don't see Mr. Silver being the Left's response ala the-late William F. Buckley.
Buckley was a CREATOR of sorts, Silver REPORTS of said creator's.
The differences alone are immeasurable.
markit8dude on 11/29/2012 8:28:06 PM
|In the grand scheme of life does it really matter. These people are nothing to me. I believe in Faith, Family and Freedom.|
Comanche on 11/30/2012 11:06:08 AM
|It's obviously going to be Obama. Just because. No logic, propaganda needed. In fact any of the others nominated are impotent, in my humble opinion. Well, actually the little girl from Pakistan, Malala Yousufzai, who has suffered dramatically for defying the Taliban; She is my choice.|
It will be Obama though; with no rationale.
vickie on 11/30/2012 1:09:51 PM
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