I know the economy is always expressed in X’s and O’s which makes it a lot like sports, but the fact is both are about flesh and blood. Both represent triumph and defeat and still there is something even deeper. There is something alive that reacts to logic and illogic and can confound the experts on any given day. Sure, we rarely ever say the market "gutted it out" in a session, but until yesterday, that's exactly what stocks have done on almost a daily basis. Although sports often feel do-or-die, it’s actually the economy that can make life better, beyond that fleeting moment of our favorite team winning the Super Bowl.

One thing's is for sure, both have soul when they're done right, which is more than we can say about politics these days. In fact, it's been a long time since the world of politics had anything resembling soul. They say this year's election is all about the economy, yet I'm beginning to think it could actually be more than simply the direction of unemployment and GDP changes. I think Americans need to really believe our economy can gut it out. Sure, there's going to be a lot of smoke-and-mirrors and endless spin on how great 8.3% unemployment is when there are the same amount of people working as a couple of decades ago.

I think there is a lack of belief in all politicians that actually harms the economy or any economic plan—one has to believe in order to make any system begin to work. Of course, it has to be the right system, too. That system needs a spark based on hope and optimism, and these days that means there has to be a key ingredient, wholesomeness. So many people feel like everything is rigged, beginning with their lives and the forces that keep them in their lanes. Like sports fans following mediocre teams, we become complicit with our rigged world. Until we're jolted out of it by something that reminds us life has no boundaries—especially life in America.

Insanity?

Last night, Jeremy Lin of the New York Knicks scored nine points early in the game and tossed out some unbelievable assist before cruising out the rest of the game on the bench as his team eased out a blowout win. Jeremy Lin is the person that makes people believe. He doesn't look the part in any way, yet his skills blossomed at the right moment. He has become a phenomenon in New York and is spreading around the nation like a jolt of electricity. Sure, we root for him because he's winning, but we love him because he leaped out of his lane. In so many ways his story is insane, but in so many ways this is America.

We saw this same kind of excitement over Tim Tebow, and both he and Lin share an unabashed faith in God out front and center. The question is how do we get their joy, passion, and remarkable ability to confound the experts into our economy? Unfortunately, it has to go through our politicians before it can infuse our economy. But that kind of jolt would come as a greater surprise than a bench-warming Harvard grad leading a freefalling New York Knicks to a seven game winning streak.

The Little Guy Looking Out for the Little Guy

A story in the Washington Post yesterday underscored the notion that Americans are simply fodder and livestock to politicians. The story highlights names and organizations and connects the dots between $3.6 billion of your tax dollars given to clean energy companies run by people that pumped money into the Obama campaign. On the campaign trail in 2008, Obama shouted he would rid Washington of influence-peddling lobbyists, but they're still around, joined by a different kind of money-changer. So when President Obama says he will double down on clean energy, he's saying he will continue to reward his money bundlers with your hard earned money.

The quid pro quo is so obvious you wonder, where's the shame or where's the law? There is no true economic plan by the president, and the idea that he has ever jumped started the economy is nonsense. But, the fact is like superstars on an underperforming sports team, the White House expects accolades and our applause. On the Republican side, the superstars may have also overestimated how much accolades would come naturally without being earned. Perhaps this explains the recent rise of Rick Santorum who now leads the pack including Mitt Romney by double digits in all national polls (Santorum also polls closest to President Obama 44% to 49%).

Just another Face in the Crowd

The last time I saw Rick Santorum, he was standing in the lobby of the midtown New York building that's home to Fox News and Fox Business. People walked past him without stopping or noticing, and I almost did the same until I caught his smile at the last second. We've always gotten along very well on and off the air, so we shook hands and did the regular pleasantries. For most of the GOP campaign, Santorum was as invisible to voters as he was that day in the lobby and as Jeremy Lin sitting on the end of the bench of an underwhelming basketball team. Now, Santorum is a juggernaut.

I'm not saying Rick Santorum is as wholesome as his sweaters, but at the moment he feels that way. He is a strong family man and is not ashamed to say he believes in God, but he has baggage that will appear and be heard. It's possible the glare of scrutiny could knock the allure off Santorum's glow, but the story at this very moment is he has something those giants like Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are lacking. He was a face in the crowd. Now, he's the face that represents the crowd, the underdog, and the person conditioned to stay in their lane. And this is why I think the election will not just be about the economy but it will also be more about how to get this economy to reach its potential.

Americans are desperate to be the most important part of economic policy rather than pawns in master games of payback. I think the winning formula in November will be the one that makes people believe in the system to an extent that it goes on a winning streak that needs no manipulation just raw enthusiasm and determination. Without the spirit of a Lin or Tebow, fits and false starts will be a permanent part of the fabric of this economy. I'm not sure who’s going to win this thing; right now the media is gushing enough for Obama to have traction, but the authentic joy needed to get America on the right (read winning) track remains elusive. Of course, you never know when it happens or where it comes from, which is why Howard Cosell always said "that's why they play the game."

The Market

It was the worst day of the market in 2012 and one that saw a reversal of key characteristics. Before Wednesday, it was all about determination and the will to climb off the canvas. Yesterday, a strong start, a few good economic readings, and more clarification from Greece were not enough to stop a late sell off. This morning equity futures rebounded, but considering more good economic data, there is a curious pause to the rally.

I think the market is due for a pullback, but one that we should be prepared to take advantage of. Watch for key support on the Dow at 12,500. Today’s session will be very telling as there is no reason for stocks to pullback, and we will start slightly in positive territory.

Comments

Market has run ahead of itself, it needs a good 10% pull back. Darren Ammann on 2/16/2012 9:53:35 AM

It will not last. As long as O is in the White House and the Demorats are in control, the stock market is a shell game. Wall Street wants to keep the Demorats in control so they will play the game to make O look good even though he sucks at the job of being president. He was totally unqualified. Those who voted for him were taken in by a smooth talker!! Mary Antoinette Manson on 2/16/2012 9:54:33 AM

The apparent market run up falsely disregards the obvious. European debt, rising oil prices, geopolital unrest, and unemployment- just to mention a few.When reality hits the dow will drop like a rock. Jack G. on 2/16/2012 10:33:11 AM

From a technical standpoint, the market has risen too far and needs to spend time consolidating or dropping back a bit in order for the 10 and 50 DMAs to catch up. However, leading stocks continue to do well so there's no indication of a major reversal right now. Art Fox on 2/16/2012 10:53:51 AM

Yes I think it has gotten ahead of itself especially housing. Rick Wolverton on 2/16/2012 11:00:12 AM

Not only do I think the imbalance of European bank debt, unemployment coupled with geopolitical unrest is just the early stage spiraling out of control. The San Andreas Fault is showing rythmic ruptures could wreak havoc on the infrastructure of the California and Oregon coastal areas. There are some other natural disasters that are builing to undermine the economy. John F on 2/16/2012 12:39:36 PM

Fundamentally not much has changed in America. The debt is still present, millions are left with homes that are worth less than they owe. 49.1 million Citizens are one health scare away from bankruptcy. Manufacturing is being outsourced to other countries for greater profits. Prime example is Apple, who very cleverly state on their products "Designed by Apple in California" Assembled in China. I believe America will continue to drift with no real growth, as the current leaders and perspective political candidates are clueless to what is happening to the middle class in America. Every facet that encourages human advancement in America is being eroded. America cannot regain any substantial recovery for its middle class until we return to a system that every individual has not the impression that it is rigged. So many entities from corporations to government agencies are all grabbing for their piece of flesh from the middle class. It is reported that 50% of Americans are living just one paycheck away from needing government assistance, add to this that 1 out 3 Americans has zero in any retirement account, or even the ability to come up with $2000 in an emergency. Education is expensive, and no longer guarantees a job. Public transport, and the transport infrastructure need urgent revitalization, America for many years relied on the automobile as a means of mobility for all citizens; however, with the cost of fuel rising, this mobility will decrease. Unless real change happens in America, I can only see decline over many years, with the resulting effects being felt on Wall Street. Andrew Shand on 2/16/2012 1:13:47 PM

How about Mitch Daniels for President? His rebuttal speech to O was right on, delivered with sincerity and without personal ego! Sheri R on 2/16/2012 2:57:08 PM

As far as the stock market---do not know--things are crazy now---but Charles we think you are so good----just love seeing you on Fox---you are the best---love you with Varney on the morning show----keep up the good work Susie Coppotelli on 2/16/2012 3:06:27 PM

Yes, there will be another big drop due to credit ratings or euro or employment David mays on 2/17/2012 5:58:26 AM

My daughter was asking me several questions about economics and I was explaining the basics. Today, I read a short article by Steve Forbes which I just emailed to her. It was entitled Bernanke "Supreme Socialist" and well worth the read. Rich on 2/17/2012 2:14:52 PM

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