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Morning Commentary

Wild Things Are Out There (Final Edition)

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/9/2010 9:21 AM

The President keeps promoting an up and down vote on healthcare and he is beating up the Republicans, however, once again, the real opposition comes from within his own political party. The sob stories of people losing their homes over a lack of healthcare insurance don't resonate in the shadow of how many people lost their homes because they've lost their jobs. If we are to be motivated by tear jerking tales then certainly nothing is crushing America more than not having a job. Record numbers of people on unemployment benefits longer than six months is the real destroyer of the fabric of the nation.

I want jobs to be the number one mission of the White House and not that saved or created stuff, real jobs. In some respects the President is part Capitan Bligh and part Captain Ahab. I don't care about the rhetoric that ramming this deal down the throats of Americans will sink the Democrats; I'm more concerned that the bill is flimsy in so many ways that it will not make healthcare better for the overwhelming majority of people all the while jobs go lacking. Attacking the insurance companies for not having competition, but fighting against the idea of knocking down state barriers to competition confuses me as it sounds like a plea for the public option.

Then there was the humdinger that insurance companies place profits over people. Everyone has an insurance company horror story. But most of us also have a Post Office horror story, a fast food restaurant horror story, and probably a horror story as it pertains to most things in our lives. We have to be careful not to rally around the thought that profits are evil unless we work for self-funded, non-profit organizations. These are the same kinds of arguments that Hugo Chavez makes as he takes control over major industries in Venezuela. "Profits" aren't bad. Limiting competition that allows one company to run roughshod over people is bad.

The fiery oratory is better suited for the up and coming politician than someone with the power to get things done. We all get pissed but at some time we must take action. The frustration at not getting healthcare through is just that, frustration. The White House can blame the GOP but the general public rejects the plan, and the reason it hasn't been signed into law is because some Democrats reject the plan, too. Apparently, those Democrats have taken the same flogging as Republicans, but behind closed doors. Case in point is the wild story of New York Representative Eric Massa. Admitting to making inappropriate comments to a male staffer (who said he was uncomfortable with the sexual overtones of an exchange) Representative Massa resigned from Congress effective last night.

(Former) Representative Massa blames his swift resignation not on his comments, but the fact that Democratic leaders will "stop at nothing" to advance healthcare reform. He was one of 39 Democrats to vote against the House version and powerful forces have been after him since.

On his radio show Sunday night, Massa specifically talked about the ridicule and pressure from House majority leader Steny Hoyer and Rahm Emanuel who he called "son of the devil's spawn" and said "would sell his mother to get a vote." I guess the mantra is by any means necessary. I could only imagine the pressure other Democrats are under right now. Some are expected to sacrifice their religious beliefs, and others their political careers.

And while this drama plays out with its bogus timelines (they used to revolve around holidays…
"I want this done by July 4, Thanksgiving, Christmas") and bare-knuckle intimidation tactics the nation is screaming out for…jobs! In the meantime, many are worried about a bill that according to the White House will cost $1.0 trillion but could easily be double that figure. Then there is the abortion issue. I also don't think that harping on the last ten years is going to get it done. In the real world it's about achievement. I don't think that history is going to judge the Obama presidency against the Bush presidency to determine success or failure. The art of governing is what people long for, which is the art of leadership. Being able to woo just a couple of opposition party members over is how to get things done.

Where the Investors Are

I'm not sure if it was nominated for anything but the movie adaptation of "Where the Wild Things Are" should have won some kind of honor for being completely out there. I guess that's where individual investors are…completely out there. They sold into last year's bottom and also, again, missed the end of the year spurt. These investors continue to pump money into bond funds or money market funds. That's considered the good news for the market, $3.0 trillion plus just hanging on the sidelines. Equity fund managers, however, only have $172.0 billion in cash or 3.6% of total assets, down from 5.7% in January 2009.




Much is made about how individual investor fund trends are the perfect contrarian indicator, but did you know the last time investors put more money into equities than bonds? It was December 2007.

Color on ICSC/Goldman Same-Store Sales Data (week-ended March 6)
By: Brian Sozzi, Research Analyst

The ICSC/Goldman chain-store sales numbers out this morning appeared solid in what is, perhaps, the first true indication of consumer demand for spring items (the weather last week was much more favorable, especially on the all-important shopping weekend). According to the report, sales increased a strong 2.9% week over week. The prior week showed a 0.8% decline week to week, but even still the latest week's print is not a case of an easy comparison. It's quite depictive of pent up demand being unleashed, and much in line with the demand trends expressed by the management teams on the 4Q earnings conference calls in late February and on the February same-store sales releases last week.

The critical week to watch in terms of sales will be week three of this month as retailers bring in their initial summer flows and Easter is that much closer. Also, pay close attention to the commentary from American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Zumiez (ZUMZ), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) on their earnings calls as it pertains to demand for spring break related apparel and accessories (boardshorts, flip flops, sunglasses, shorts). Interest in these items would suggest two things (1) parents are opening their wallets to their clothes horse children after pulling back in 2009, and (2) teens are finding the money, somehow in the face of 20% unemployment, to travel.

Toyota Fights Back
By: David Silver, Research Analyst

In a news conference, Toyota added the next volley to the mix with its proclamation the videos that ABC News aired about it unintended acceleration were staged. The Company also indicated that it was able to cause a similar reaction in three other vehicles (including the BMW 3-series), when it did the same damage that Mr. David Gilbert of Southern Illinois University-Carbondale did in his original test. Apparently, when you make changes to a circuit that is extremely improbable in normal situations, it makes the circuit malfunction… Who knew…

 

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