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Historic Trump Rally

12/19/2016
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

It’s official: The Trump Rally is now the best ever after a five-week period that passed the long-held record of fellow Republican and the infamous protectionist William McKinley. McKinley ushered in the Dingley Act of 1897, the longest-lived tariff to protect wool and hides, and produced a super-hot economy that helped his easy re-election in 1900.

The good news is that four of the five times a post-election rally has gone five percent or higher, the rally continued for another six months, gaining an average of 10%.

There is some concern, however, that the wrong people are becoming too giddy (individual investors).  I have used and studied investor sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors, and it’s not always some great contrarian indicator of doom-and-gloom when individuals become optimistic. The last time the eight-week average hit 39%, the Dow was on the cusp of a major sell-off; however, it should be noted that bullishness actually declined.

AAII Sentiment Survey

Current

Sentiment

Change

Percentage Point

Bullish

44.7

+1.5%

Neutral

23.0

-7.4

Bearish

32.2

+5.8

 

The last time the eight-week average was at this level and moved higher was in September 2014. The Dow continued to rally for more than another thousand points. I am looking at the report from a pure sense, not in the cynical manner of the geniuses on Wall Street that have underperformed for so long that it is amazing that they would ridicule the small investor anymore.

I have seen a lot more upside in this stock market over a long period of time. Meanwhile, after the bell on Thursday, big time tech names posted earnings results.

Oracle (ORCL) beat by a penny on earnings but missed on the bottom line, while Adobe (ADBE) beat on both top and bottom lines, but offered cautious guidance that initially sent shares lower.  I think the stock is in a buy/hold-period.

The drama to 20,000 Dow points is exciting but long beyond this number, there is the potential for the records to fall over the next four years; please don’t miss this. You can’t get tired of winning if you’re not in the game.

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies


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testing comments

Laura Cotterman on 12/20/2016 12:12:27 PM
 

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