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Market Session Like No Other

11/8/2016
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst

In an election like none other, why not have an election eve stock market session like none other?  The day before an election, it is typically calm and collected. Perhaps it’s just a ball of nerves, but whatever it is, the needle barely moves. This year, the market surged in large part because of the latest from FBI Director James Comey. Also, after the longest slide in 36 years, the market was poised for a bounce.

The fact that the market actually popped, paused, and then surged again into the close underscores how this is more than just an oversold bounce.  The S&P 500 closed up 46 points or 2.2% that sent the index above its October 28 level when Comey dropped his October Surprise.

S&P 500 Election Eve Session

Point Change

Nov 3, 1980

+1.57

Nov 5, 1984

+1.16

Nov 7, 1988

-2.38

Nov 2, 1992

+4.07

Nov 4, 1996

+2.96

Nov 6, 2000

+5.50

Nov 1, 2004

+0.31

Nov 3, 2008

-2.45

Nov 5, 2012

+3.06

Nov 7, 2016

+46.34

 

While this kind of move has never happened before an election, the S&P 500 did soar in the days before the British Exit vote - like polls and betting odds, the market can get it wrong.

Of course, the Street is worried about losing immense power if Donald Trump wins tonight. In his final plea to voters, the GOP Nominee takes on the powerful special interest, including:

  • Comey/Clinton
  • Wall Street
  • George Soros
  • Janet Yellen
  • Lloyd Blankfein
  • New York Stock Exchange
  • Federal Reserve
  • Clinton Global Initiative
  • G-20 and G-8
  • Robots From Foreign Countries (ABB)

I continue to remind everyone that owning a portfolio of stock is not Wall Street, so make sure you don’t make the mistake of not improving your economic situation by conflating the two.

Message of the Market

Old school investors and followers of the Dow Theory understand the importance of transportation stocks as a harbinger for the economy and stock market. Strong moves by truck companies helped the index breakout to a new 2016 high.  Watch for Cummins Engine (CMI), which caught an upgrade on Monday, to continue to set the pace for transportation names. 

For the S&P 500, there is serious resistance that begins at 2,131 with the breakout coming with a close above 2,150.  I like the notion of putting some cash to work with a focus on blue chip names and also names that win no matter who becomes the next President of the United States.

Go Vote Today

Each morning, I stop at a little restaurant on the first floor of this building where the staff is generally upbeat but always changing. The young woman that rings up my food told me this morning that she is over this election but admitted she isn't a registered voter. This vibrant girl working a minimum wage dead-end job is so indifferent to what is not only a cornerstone right of this country but also the responsibility of each citizen. Of course, she isn't alone; millions of folks aren't going to vote.

I recalled a story my mother told me about Election Day and my grandmother. Despite threats of psychical reprisal and intimidation, my grandmother went to the courthouse on Election Day; she was just one of the half dozen of blacks who insisted on voting in her tiny town near Selma, Alabama. The group was placed in a small room- while very brave at that point, the group became very afraid. 

After waiting close to an hour, the room door finally opened and a young man walked in- it was Martin Luther King Jr.  He told them not to be afraid, and they were able to cast their vote that day. 

A big narrative of this election is about silent suffering but on Election Day, everyone has the same power and it's a voice that should never be muzzled or squandered.

 

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies


 

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