Investor survey after survey shows huge surges in folks moving to a neutral stance for the next six months.  That makes sense looking from the outside in, but in real life, the notion of putting it in park for six months is almost always a huge mistake.

I get it, right now there are a lot of question marks.

But the level of bullishness has tumbled so much its actually bullish.

In the most recent RBC equity survey, bears outnumber bulls for the first time since Mid-2019.

These kinds of market decisions determine how well you are going to fare in the long run.

Making moves is tough right now, but necessary.  I think you take some profits earlier than you wanted to in names that are hinting of stalling fundamentally. That also applies to losses that are only going to get worse.

It’s not easy, but you must always be in the market, which is not the same as being 100% invested.  Own your core positions and have cash to buy market overreactions.

The good news is sentiment suggests there will be lots of market overreactions.

Waiting on Fed

We are waiting on the FOMC minutes. Meanwhile, the key number for the rest of the session is 4,416 on the S&P 500.

That’s the 50-day moving average. 

It would be a positive if the index held the rest of the session above the intra-day low of 4,460.