Morning Commentary
There were very slim hopes that talks between Russia and Ukraine would yield anything tangible, but it helped futures climb off a serious pre-opening session.; However, once that dream was dashed, the market followed.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
710 |
1,215 |
Decliners |
2,698 |
3,512 |
New Highs |
186 |
75 |
New Lows |
486 |
803 |
Up Volume |
1.91 billion |
2.09 billion |
Down Volume |
5.01 billion |
4.00 billion |
The NASDAQ Composite landed with a thud, finishing the session at the low of the day and in a bear market.
The Red Sea
The S&P 500 was awash in red, with crude oil being the only haven. Inverse Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) were the biggest winners in the session, but they were also the biggest losers, including the 3X Bull TMF (ETF).
S&P 500 Heat Map
ETF Heat Map
Oil Independence is Independence
Late yesterday we learned the national average of a gallon of gasoline hit a new all-time high. This is such a shame because we should have been exploiting the crude oil under our feet – we need it. The country was on track to be energy independent but no longer. And if you’ve heard about 900 leases, do your homework; those new leases are all offshore, and the administration has pulled the rug on the industry so many times that there is no funding.
Parabolic Gusher
Crude oil traded in the range of $130 and $116 a barrel. I know everyone is talking up crude oil, but there must be at least $20 to $25 in geopolitical risk and hype, so if you insist on chasing here – be careful.
Meanwhile, the five-year breakeven inflation gauge hit a record as the yield curve flattening sped up.
Stocks Get Cheaper
The meltdown in the market means the market is getting cheaper. It’s tough to endure, but if you aren’t prepared to pounce (more like ease in), soon you will miss a great window of opportunities.
Portfolio Approach
There are no sector weighting changes this morning to our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
I’m watching the flattening of the yield curve and considering all the geopolitical issues (nobody is talking about upheaval in Pakistan, which has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons, and China is making major strides, including potentially major investments in Russia commodities businesses).
President Biden makes the Russian oil sanction official today. Anyone looking for a hedge should consider USO.
The market is oversold by a mile – let’s see if key technical levels hold.
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3/28/2024 7:50 AM | LISTEN TO THE MARKET |
3/27/2024 1:40 PM | Mostly Higher |
3/27/2024 9:32 AM | U-TURN? |
3/26/2024 1:08 PM | Everything Is Up |
3/26/2024 9:42 AM | TAPPED OUT (I HOPE YOU AT LEAST GOT A T-SHIRT) |
3/25/2024 1:33 PM | Not A Mutiny |
3/25/2024 9:35 AM | STAYING THE COURSE…BEYOND TECH |
3/22/2024 12:56 PM | Toll on Americans |
3/22/2024 9:38 AM | A TAD TIRED |
3/21/2024 1:55 PM | Building on Gains |
3/21/2024 9:30 AM | A COMFORTING FED |
3/20/2024 1:33 PM | Pivotal Moment |
3/20/2024 10:00 AM | HERE COMES THE FED |
3/19/2024 1:33 PM | Picking Up Steam |
3/19/2024 9:35 AM | RUMBLINGS IN THE BOND MARKET |
3/18/2024 1:48 PM | Mag 7 is Back |
3/18/2024 9:39 AM | THE PARTY IN SAN JOSE WILL BE LIT |
3/15/2024 1:38 PM | Realtors Settle |
3/15/2024 9:33 AM | AN UNEASY PAUSE |
3/14/2024 1:43 PM | Sticky Inflation |
3/14/2024 9:48 AM | GOING TO A GO-GO |
3/13/2024 2:16 PM | Taking a Breather |
3/13/2024 9:51 AM | ALL SO EPIC |
3/12/2024 1:42 PM | Marching Higher |
3/12/2024 9:25 AM | ROTATION IN FULL SWING |
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