Morning Commentary
There is a great sense of optimism this morning, as investors look for fiscal stimulus to happen, watch the vaccine roll out and brace for the Federal Reserve to provide more accommodation. This, after last week saw some pressure; although, nothing approaching panic. On Friday, there were decidedly more decliners than advancers but on light volume.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancing |
1,301 |
1,481 |
Declining |
1,844 |
2,208 |
52 Week High |
198 |
257 |
52 Week Low |
2 |
14 |
Up Volume |
1.10B |
1.94B |
Down Volume |
2.59B |
1.92B |
Watch the VIX this week, which edged higher and continues to remain above the long-term average, even as major equity indices are making new highs.
Hello Tina
There was talk of Tina (there is no alternative) throughout the spring and summer as a reason for the stock market’s strength but flows into mutual funds and exchange traded funds skewed heavily toward bonds – it wasn’t even a contest.
There were signs of stocks becoming more attractive to ETF buyers in September, but bond inflows were three times higher in October. Then came November, which was a record month for inflows into US equity ETFs.
That trend continues in December as last week’s trends reveal.
ETF Fund Flows |
September |
October |
November |
US equites |
$11.0 |
$5.6 |
$62.0 |
US bonds |
$8.8 |
$19.0 |
$11.3 |
Meanwhile, the ten-year yield is rising again.
Portfolio Approach
We are adding to Consumer Discretionary this morning in the Hotline Model Portfolio.
Today’s Session
If we do get $908.0 billion in fiscal stimulus, look for the market to take off as fear of missing out becomes fear of losing my job among many money managers that have been behind all year long.
Look for more macro nudges from whispers and platitudes on Capitol Hill. Meanwhile, the market is poised for a big pop higher if a deal really happens.
Comments |
I’ve just begun Unstoppable Prosperity and am enjoying it. I’ve followed you for years and watch Making Money every day possible. I’ve done very well in the past few years with a tech overweight. Not sure how to rotate out and get into Consumer Discretionary and Industrials. Thanks for all your help in the past (TPR for example). Looking forward to your thoughts. Sincerely Parker Stokes, MD Parker Stokes on 12/14/2020 10:39:14 AM |
Thank you Dr. Parker
Part of rotation is taking profits and reapplying them elsewhere. But also everyone should be adding funds to their portfolio, We are not necessarily advocating one at the expense of another but there the biggest near term opportunities are and how investors should be weighted to take advantage.,
Note, since the March 23rd lows Materials, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary have outperformed Technology and Communication Services. CP Charles Payne on 12/14/2020 11:30:44 AM |
Hi again Charles. Been recommending your site to others. We, wife and I, enjoy hearing and reading about investment. We are mostly in mutual funds. Always reading to learn, even in our 70s. Thanks again. Lorin K on 12/14/2020 11:46:17 AM |
Tweet |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
4/8/2024 7:19 AM | IT’S ECLIPSE DAY |
4/5/2024 1:51 PM | Higher and Cheaper |
4/5/2024 9:23 AM | MARKETS REEL ON BIDEN’S ISRAEL ULTIMATUM |
4/4/2024 1:42 PM | Stocks Bounce |
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