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Afternoon Note

Trapped in Narrow Range

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/31/2020 1:22 PM

The market has been trapped in a narrow trading range, but it has exhibited spunk, climbing off the canvass more than once. One reason for the first big move was the Consumer Confidence release from the Conference Board.

Consumer Confidence

The street was looking for 110.0, so the number was much better than anticipated and had certainly played a role in moving the market higher. Interesting, the Conference Board noted as a segue about the message of the results (see below) - the rebounded isn't huge per se, but it underscores the fact worst case expectations can establish good (better) news outcomes, and there is an eagerness to buy the dip – although, we don't know how deep that runs among those on the sidelines and what data will really move the masses.

Consumer Confidence

Mar

Feb

Headline

120.0

132.6

Present Conditions

167.7

169.3

Expectations

88.2

108.1

 
“Consumer confidence declined sharply in March due to a deterioration in the short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index remained relatively strong, reflective of an economy that was on solid footing, and prior to the recent surge in unemployment claims. However, the intensification of COVID-19 and extreme volatility in the financial markets have increased uncertainty about the outlook for the economy and jobs. March’s decline in confidence is more in line with a severe contraction – rather than a temporary shock – and further declines are sure to follow.”

The news put a temporary spark in restaurant stocks.  Released at 10:00, some key names moved higher including:

Overall, this is an intriguing session that sees coronavirus losers move higher and dominate the list of the highest percentage gainers.

I like the action in the market, but it’s clear all that money on the sidelines is looking for a spark from better coronavirus trends and economic data from an unprecedented backdrop. 


Comments
Love what you.....

Jeff Caudill on 3/31/2020 1:50:01 PM
 

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