Early in the session, investors ran into Health Care names lifting the sector up 4.4%, or twice the move in the overall S&P 500, but now buying is smoothing out. There continues to be a decidedly cautious tone, however, defensive sectors continue to be the biggest winners.  The caveat these days are bond yields are so low maybe owning a Utility stock or REIT is an offensive move.

Right now, we are taking the market one day at a time, but during those days, we are looking deeply under the hood. We are focused on less volatility and buying beyond the most cautious sectors. 

I’m very worried about Financials, as nothing seems to help, even when it was assumed the Fed would be hiking rates.

The Economy

Meanwhile, the economy continued to surge as refinancing applications climbed 26% in one week and +224% in the past year.   This is a ton of money that acts like a stimulus program that isn’t funded by the government.

The Service Economy

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.3 from 55.5 and the consensus estimate of 54.9.

• -3.1 Business Activity
• +6.9 New Orders
• +2.5 Employment
• +7.4 Inventories

ISM Non-Manufacturing

Key Comments

“[The] coronavirus has increased lead times for the critical items.” (Construction)

 “Because of the coronavirus, we are looking at major back-orders in masks, gloves, and PPE (personal protection equipment). (Health Care & Social Assistance)

“Business is rapidly improving.” (Management of Companies & Support Services)

“The business outlook remains positive, but foggy due to the Chinese coronavirus outbreak. (Mining)

“The outlook appears positive, as our order book is nearing full capacity for the first half of 2020.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

“Construction activity appears to be getting off to a good start for 2020.” (Real Estate, Rental & Leasing)

“A post-holiday slow period for retail. Business is strong overall; however, volume and inventories are lower due to the season. Pricing is still in check, with specialty labor the primary price risk.” (Retail Trade)