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Afternoon Note

The Day After

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
12/19/2019 1:31 PM

It’s the day after the vote by the House to impeach President Trump and what happens?  The markets are higher.  We could argue that without all this noise, the markets would be even higher. 

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin helped propel the markets when he stated that he is “very confident” that the Phase One U.S. and China trade deal will be signed in early January.  He added, “It’s just going through what I would consider to be a technical, legal scrub and we’ll be releasing the document and signing it in the beginning of January.” 

The USMCA, U.S. Mexico and Canada trade deal, should be approved in the House today.  The deal should improve the access of U.S. farmers to the agriculture markets.  It should also add at least an additional 50 basis points to our GDP.

In economic news,  initial claims rose by 49,000 to 252,000, while the 4-week moving average increased by 6,250 to 224,000.  Continuing claims however for the 4-week moving average was down 6,250 to 1.676 million.  This week’s rise was the highest level since September 30, 2017, and the trend has seen an uptick, but nothing that is alarming.

Existing home sales came in below consensus due to the lack of supply and higher prices.  Data showed the number of homes available in November fell 7.3% from last year. The median sale price rose 5.4% from last year to $271,300, the highest November price on record.

Existing Homes change from a year ago

Real Estate is the best performing sector today.

S&P 500 Index



Communication Services (XLC)



Consumer Discretionary (XLY)



Consumer Staples (XLP)



Energy (XLE)



Financials (XLF)



Health Care (XLV)



Industrials (XLI)



Materials (XLB)



Real Estate (XLRE)



Technology (XLK)



Utilities (XLU)




At midday, the major indices are up between .33-.45%, with the Nasdaq leading the way, up 40 points to 8869, followed by the Dow up 93 points to 28,332, the S&P 500 up 10 to 3,201.  


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