Afternoon Note
The drumbeats of war have drowned out some of the enthusiasm that fueled a big pop at the open, which lifted the S&P 500 to an all-time high. Much of the rally began to evaporate as the White House announced a meeting on the potential reaction to Iran after a shooting down of a US Navy drone on the Strait of Hormuz. The slide in the market stopped after President Trump reiterated an observation made initially on Twitter that Iran made a “very bad” mistake.
While it’s clear President Trump is not eager to go into full scale war with Iran, there is also no doubt there will be some retaliation. If the retaliation is targeted in a way that deliberately seeks to avoid human causalities, the market might take that as an affirmation of the administration’s efforts to avoid war.
Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see if the S&P 500 can get back above 2,945.83.
S&P 500
The seriousness of this latest act of Iranian provocation is reflected in the action in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which is spiking close to six percent. This issue will continue, and it’s clear Iran is desperate and pushing the envelope.
Overall, I love the action of this rally, but it’s still hit or miss. Companies that miss on earnings, or let the street down in any other way, will continue to pay a price: see Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL).
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