Morning Commentary
It was another yo-yo session for the market on Wednesday that came up short in its last ditched effort to rally into the close. The market breadth was worse than the prints for the major indices.
NYSE
NASDAQ
This range-bound action might be frustrating for some investors, but I think it’s great that selling is finding buyers, and even stock pops are being faded. After a great start to 2019, this is a consolidation that was expected. Plus, the market is at an impasse waiting for the next round of big economic data, including next week’s jobs report and earnings that roll out next month.
Meanwhile, there is that long-awaited US-China trade deal, which has now lurched into the category of “wake me when you’re done.”
Of course, the next big move isn’t ordained to be higher, so the lingering can also see the anxiety morph into selling if there are more bumps in the road. However, the bias is to the upside and the road is paved for a big move higher, but investors need a push. Speaking of the paved roads, low expectations are a bumpy terrain, but that might be changing as well. Perhaps conventional wisdom has been overzealous in bracing for a massive slowdown in the economy.
Pumping Up The GDP
Don’t look now, but the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates are beginning to move up in a meaningful way, and if correct, it will have everyone sharpening their pencils and adjusting their models. The Atlanta Fed now sees the first quarter GDP at 1.5% from just 0.2% two weeks ago.
Date |
Major Releases |
GDP |
PCE |
1-Mar |
Initial now cast |
0.3 |
1.6 |
4-Mar |
Construction spending, Auto sales |
0.3 |
1.5 |
5-Mar |
New-home sales, ISM non-manufacturing |
0.5 |
1.6 |
6-Mar |
International trade |
0.5 |
1.6 |
8-Mar |
Housing starts, Jobs Report |
0.5 |
1.5 |
11-Mar |
Retail trade |
0.2 |
1 |
12-Mar |
Consumer Price Index |
0.2 |
1 |
13-Mar |
Advance durable manufacturing, PPI |
0.4 |
1 |
14-Mar |
New-home sales |
0.4 |
1 |
15-Mar |
Industrial production |
0.5 |
0.9 |
19-Mar |
M3-2 Manufacturing |
0.6 |
0.9 |
22-Mar |
Existing-home sales |
1.2 |
0.9 |
25-Mar |
Monthly Treasury Statement (3/22) |
1.3 |
0.9 |
26-Mar |
Housing starts |
1.3 |
0.9 |
27-Mar |
International trade |
1.5 |
0.9 |
After the Close
Lululemon (LULU) posted monster results, reminding investors that while Levi Strauss (LEVI) had a hot public offering, the public is still hot over athletic-wear. The company beat in revenue and earnings and various metrics were very impressive:
International growth is “much faster” than North America as the company is moving the needle in Asia and Europe.
Guidance was well above Wall Street consensus.
First Quarter (1Q)
Fiscal Year (FY)
Other big-retail movers after the bell:
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Communication Services 1 |
Consumer Discretionary 5 |
Consumer Staples 1 |
Energy 1 |
Financials 1 |
Healthcare 2 |
Industrial 3 |
Materials 3 |
Real Estate 0 |
Technology 2 |
Utilities 0 |
Cash 1 |
Today’s Session
GDP
GDP for the fourth quarter came in a little less than anticipated, 2.2% from 2.6%. There was a sharp reversal in government spending (state and local), declining 1.3% from 0.3%. Also adding to the cut was softer consumer spending and reduced business investment, which will may lead to a softer 1st quarter 2019.
Overall, GDP for all of 2018 was 2.9%, matching 2015 GDP, and the best read since the recession 10 years ago.
Oil Watch
Oil prices are extending losses after President Trump tweeted this morning that oil prices have risen too high and called the OPEC to do what's necessary to mitigate the price increase.
U.S. priced oil (WTI) has been pulling back, after trading above $60 on Tuesday. Yesterday, the U.S. government report revealed that U.S. crude supplies surprisingly rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended March 22, while analysts were expecting a fall of 2.2 million barrels.
Donald J. Trump Tweet
@realDonaldTrump
"Very important that OPEC increase the flow of Oil. World Markets are fragile, price of Oil getting too high. Thank you!"
Tweet |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
4/8/2024 7:19 AM | IT’S ECLIPSE DAY |
4/5/2024 1:51 PM | Higher and Cheaper |
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