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Morning Commentary

New Hope on Trade

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/28/2018 9:37 AM

It was a monster day for the market on Monday, as the pendulum of fear has swung from losing money to missing an opportunity to make big money. The pendulum of doubt has also swung from ridiculing the White House for taking on trade to anticipating potential new trade deals, even with China.

Yes, haters are going to hate. Make sure you are getting unfiltered financial news instead of snide commentary and an open desire for failure. In other words, follow the fundamentals and follow the market. I keep saying there are two ways to engage in this market:

Yesterday’s market breadth was remarkably bullish.

52-week Milestones:

NYSE

NASDAQ

There was some rotation out of retail and certain tech names, powered higher in recent weeks by great earnings into materials, including Sherwin-Williams (SHW) that I mentioned last week.

Big banks continue to act great, even though it’s clear this is a dovish Federal Reserve. Perhaps these names are higher for more practical reasons such as the great economic backdrop.

Industrial names soared on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) news, led by Kansas City Southern (KSU) and Caterpillar (CAT). However, watch for another one of my favorites, United Rentals (URI), which is becoming a beast- when it gets going, it’s a classic momentum name.

Of course, with the market sizzling again, funds are automatically going to pour into big tech names, sending Amazon (AMZN) to an all-time high, and powering up Facebook (FB), Google/Alphabet (GOOGL), Netflix (NFLX), and Nvidia (NVDA).  But the real action in technology was in those oversold semiconductor names, which have enticing risk-reward ratios at current levels:

 S&P 500 Index

+0.72%

Communication Services (XLC)

+0.93%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+0.57%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.02%

Energy (XLE)

+0.74%

Financials (XLF)

+1.27%

Health Care (XLV)

+0.27%

Industrials (XLI)

+1.14%

Materials (XLB)

+1.27%

Real Estate (XLRE)

-0.21%

Technology (XLK)

+0.86%

Utilities (XLU)

-0.62%

 

Then there are marijuana stocks, which are fired up big time after Constellation Brands (STZ) announced it increased its stake in Canopy Growth (CGC) to 38% from less than 10% back in November. In addition, Diageo PLC (DEO) has also stated that it’s on the prowl for marijuana investments.

All the excitement has sent the marijuana ETF Alternative Harvest (MJ) ripping higher.

Mondelez International (MDLZ) is getting in on the act too, announcing two new flavors of Oreos for those with the munchies -

'Hot Chicken Wing' and 'Wasabi'

Just joking. Those are real flavors, but only available in China for now.

Today’s Session

Tiffany's Crushes Wall Street Estimates. As proxy for global wealth creation, numbers are intriguing- China is surging and Europe is sinking:

When I look at global high-end luxury retailers, it’s the same story over and over.  China and Asia are minting wealth in the form of millionaires and billionaires, as well as a swelling middle class, as Europe continues to recede in those categories, basking in old glory, but saddled with high taxes, high regulations and enormous social welfare commitments.

Best Buy shares are lower after reporting earnings– we are delving into the numbers.  Meanwhile, the big news is Canada’s trade minister has cut short her trip to Europe to come to the White House in what feels like a moment of truth.  I like that the trade representative is coming rather than Prime Minister Trudeau who has become too emotional over these negotiations.

We have to hope he can look to Mexico’s outgoing President Nieto who was magnanimous and upbeat on yesterday’s conference call.


 

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