The key focus is on technology, and what this would mean for American tech names selling into China. While the S&P tech sector was among the hardest hit yesterday, computer chip makers were hammered.

S&P 500 Index		-1.37%
Communication Services (XLC)		-2.06%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)		-2.17%
Consumer Staples (XLP)	+0.50%
Energy (XLE)		-2.01%
Financials (XLF)		-1.07%
Health Care (XLV)		-0.92%
Industrials (XLI)		-1.27%
Materials (XLB)		-1.56%
Real Estate (XLRE)		-0.25%
Technology (XLK)		-2.08%
Utilities (XLU)	+1.66%

American Technology Secrets: Not for Sale

The market was slammed on Monday due to reports of the White House’s preparedness to curb investments in certain industries that could benefit the Chinese government’s “Made in China 2025” ambitions. 

While the focus has been on controlling trade in an effort to open China’s market, to stop the shakedown of foreign businesses, and to curb the theft of intellectual property, yesterday’s news had a different angle. 

According to reports, the Trump Administration is considering slowing investments by companies that have 25% or more ownership. Chinese investment into the United States soared into the election of President Trump - from 2000 to the first quarter of 2018, there have been 1,556 deals worth $139.9 billion.

• 1990 to 2015: $64 billion
• 2016: $45.0 billion
• 2017: $29.0 billion

A big part of last year’s China direct investment slowdown was a combination of China’s efforts to slow capital flight, and the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States’ (CFIUS) actions.

It is unlikely the administration’s potential new rules would have held up many deals accomplished over the past two decades. Late in the session, Peter Navarro spoke and tried to calm the market, which saw the Dow rebound almost 200 points, but the Street was determined to send Trump & Co. a warning.  

China Direct Investment: United States 2000 to 1Q 2018
Industry	Deals	Value (000 USD)
Real Estate	223	$40,347
Transportation	101	$17,042
Information & Communication Technology	242	$16,816
Energy	114	$13,401
Entertainment	114	$9,420
Agriculture	37	$7,566
Health	145	$7,445
Finance	94	$7,151
Consumer	118	$6,698
Automatic	154	$4,483
Basic Materials	94	$2,430
Machinery	91	$1,114
Aviation	19	$798

Real Panic?

When I look around at signs for panic where we’d normally see it, there was mostly calm feelings or indifference. The ten-year Treasury yield declined to 2.88% while gold was down $3.40. 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was up 25%. It is up more than 56% this year, but it’s from such a low base that it’s 78% lower than its 2008 peak.

I’m salivating about the investment opportunities. Others are hiding in foxholes, and some have already said America can’t win. In fact, I think Harley Davidson (HOG) panicked with that announcement of moving some manufacturing outside the United States. 

Let’s face it: the company is growing and taking market share in Europe, Middle East, and Africa, while its U.S. business swoons. There probably was going to come a time when some manufacturing would have to be moved. The cover of a trade dispute allows management to ignore questions about its domestic business, which is still 200% larger than Europe.

The Problem: Lack of Leadership

Market Breadth underscores the problem with the selective nature of the rally, which has been led by tech and recently aided by consumer names.

Yesterday, losers outpaced winners, revealing the problem of investors loading into a just a handful of names:

NYSE

• Advancing Issues: 720
• Declining Issues: 2,263
• 52-Week Highs: 39
• 52-Week Lows: 104

NASDAQ

• Advancing Issues: 709
• Declining Issues: 2,300
• 52-Week Highs: 68
• 52-Week Lows: 79

I want to reiterate that we aren’t losing this trade skirmish no matter what the globalist headlines read this morning. 

Shenzhen Composite Index

• -17.3% 2018
• -41.6% three years

Quick Resolution

Of course, I would love for this episode to be over sooner rather than later, so we can get back to what really matters in real-time: the continued momentum of this economic recovery.

Today’s Session

This morning, I discussed Harley Davidson (HOG) on Fox and Friends and pointed out how unfortunate it is that management made its manufacturing move to Thailand about tariffs, considering, it was planned long before, just as the Kansas City plant closure was already announced. I understand the company wants to grow its business around the world, especially as it declines in the United States.  In fact, the company says it wants 50% of its volume to be outside the U.S. by 2027.  In the most recent quarter, retail sales in the U.S. were -12%, and shipments were down more than 15%.

I just think it’s dangerous for American businesses, which are benefiting big time from new tax rates (Harley pocketed an extra $25 million in the first quarter), to allow their names and products to be a part of the political narrative, especially when foreign countries can use this to justify their unfair tariffs.

The big corporate news item of the morning is from Lennar (LEN), which posted strong earnings. 

• Deliveries +57%
• New Orders +62%, volume +79% in value to $6.0 billion
• Backlog +92%, volume +114% in value to $8.6 billion
• Statement from Lennar Management

"Concerns about rising interest rates and construction costs have been offset by low unemployment and increasing wages, combined with short supply based on years of underproduction of new homes. Demand remained strong as we continued to see pricing power support margins while affordability remained consistent. During the quarter, we used our strong cash flow generation to reduce our debt levels by $1.1 billion, paying off $825 million of homebuilding debt maturities in May and early June as well as the remaining $250 million of Rialto's senior notes without refinancing."

Macro Conditions

“Low unemployment and increasing wages”

Pricing Power not hurting volume = expanding margins

“Demand remained strong as we continued to see pricing power support margins”

Paying off debts before rates increase (smart use of cash)

“Strong cash flow generation to reduce our debt levels by $1.1 billion”

Buy Signal

There are a lot of oversold names, but the broad market is under enough pressure.  Everyone should keep their powder dry for the moment.  For the Dow Jones Industrial Average:

• Above 24,655: I would nibble
• Above 25,312: I would buy more aggressively

Comments

Is that a typo or just me: nibble above $24k and buy more aggressively above $25k? Robert Hass on 6/26/2018 12:27:53 PM

There are a lot of oversold names but the broad market is under enough pressure everyone should keep their powder dry for the moment. For the Dow Jones Industrial Average” · Above 24,655 I would nibble · Above 25,312 I would buy more aggressively Charles Payne on 6/26/2018 12:31:44 PM

Robert, to explain my understanding of why Charles Payne would buy more above 25,312 than he would above 24,655, which goes against the concept of wanting to buy low: He is not trying to catch a falling knife and guess correctly where the exact bottom is, which could potentially give you the lowest entry point (perhaps today where the Dow is holding just above the 200 day moving average). He is "keeping his powder dry" and waiting for the market to confirm that it is back in rally mode. A break above the 50 day moving average (currently 24,654) would be one indication that the market is done selling off. Breaking above the highs reached in March and again in June, near 25,300, would signal an end to the current trading range and a higher likelihood of the market moving into a sustained uptrend. Risk is lower when the market is rising above resistance. If you try buying at the potential lows, your potential reward is greater, but if those lows are taken out the market can very easily drop quickly, so the risk is greater as well. Based on comments on his show, I think he does also nibble at stocks at times where he senses panic and that the market is oversold, when it is clearly below major resistance. But he also watches the market much more closely than most people who watch him on tv, so he can get out quickly if a trade goes against him. Charles, feel free to correct me if anything I stated was not an accurate portrayal of your reasoning. Rich on 6/26/2018 2:20:07 PM

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