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Afternoon Note

Waiting on Iran Decision

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/8/2018 1:43 PM

There is a lot of angst centered on the Iran Nuclear deal and whether the White House will rip it up and restore sanctions.  Lots of rumors and fake news abound, but its seems clear, President Trump will toss that deal into the ash heap of history where it belongs, even if the market would prefer the status quo.  Oil has been lower, which seems counterintuitive if it brings less supply to the global market.  WTI has declined 3% to $68.58 and WTI is down 2.5% to $74.24. 

Right now, financials are a safe haven of sorts and are also getting a big pop from news of activist interest in Citibank.  Nine of the 11 S&P sectors are in the red with utilities and telecom leading the way down.  Financials and Industrials are in the green, up 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively.  Decliners outpace advancers 1690/1159 on the NYSE and 1414/1377 on the Nasdaq.

S&P 500 Index

-0.23%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

-0.42%

 

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-0.57%

 

Energy (XLE)

-0.62%

 

Financials (XLF)

 

+0.71%

Health Care (XLV)

-0.78%

 

Industrials (XLI)

 

+0.34%

Materials (XLB)

-0.14%

 

Real Estate (XLRE)

-0.94%

 

Technology (XLK)

-0.09%

 

Utilities (XLU)

-1.82%

 

I think the most intriguing action is in utilities, which are getting walloped today.  I also like the action in lots of economic proxies from packing names to those truckers. 

In economic news, April’s Small Business Optimism survey increased to a record, 104.8 (March was 104.7), high for the 17th consecutive month. 

The report was driven by improved profits in conjunction with the number of small businesses reporting poor sales falling to a record low reading.  NFIB President and CEO, Juanita Duggan, commented, “Never in the history of this survey have we seen profit trends so high.”  She went on to say, “The optimism small businesses owners have about the economy is turning into new job creation, increased wages and benefits, and investment.”   This report is extremely encouraging as small business are the backbone of the U.S. economy. 

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report for March increased to a series high reading of 6.6 million job openings.  The largest increases in job openings were in professional and business services (+112,000), construction (+68,000), and health care and social services (+56,000).  Job openings were strongest in the Midwest and Northeast regions.   Quits were little changed at 2.3% from February. Quits was unchanged for government jobs and edged higher for total private, led by increases in other services +71,000.


Comments
This Iran deal is a farce. Iran wants to become the theological leader of the Islamic world. Iran want to impose Shiite versus Sunni reading of the Coran. Iran is willing to go to war to succeed!
The days when the US needed the Middle East Oil & Gas is over. The US is becoming a principal O&G exporter. The US principal competitor is the Middle East. The US has no benefits in letting Iran succeed. On the other hand, the Europeans have a lot to lose in having to import O&G from a Middle East under the thumb of a fascist dictatorship like Iran.
Ultimately should Iran become the despotic leader of the Middle East with Russia, The US O&G will become the main alternative. Iran can rattle all they want, a one-day war will suffice to deal with Iran. The US will win any which way.


Philippe on 5/8/2018 8:22:48 PM
 

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