The market was in cruise control last Friday as it drifted into the three-day holiday weekend. Still, economic data continues to speak to an economy on the move.

We got the evidence. Consumers went on a serious spending spree in November as Personal Outlays surged 0.6%. Some will say these are December sales (pulled forward), but I’m not so sure.  A more legitimate concern is savings dipping to 2.9%.

 I still think it’s a de facto confidence indicator, but I will watch all the data to make sure it’s not a net- negative. 

Transportation stocks continue to do very well and should outperform next year. Materials were higher and remain an area I think everyone should be overweight in their portfolio.

I love the action in CF Industries (CF). The move in the stock is still discounting the rapid improvement on the company’s fundamentals.

Today, we hear from the Richmond and Dallas Fed.

Bitcoin Madness

The headline ‘Bitcoin Crash’ has been used at least five times this year, but the action in the last 24-hours has sent shockwaves throughout the investing world.  There are many theories as to what happened, and each one is valid. With the massive influx of individuals who were the weaker hands and  the inability of current trading infrastructure to handle the selling volume, it only exacerbated the problem.

After getting in the shadow of $20,000 two Sundays ago, Bitcoin (BTC) began to drift until the bottom collapsed on Friday.  Bitcoin is now on a solid down channel and needs to get through $15,000 before sending a technical buy signal.  Make no mistake; this is the Wild West, and there are now 1,300 cryptocurrencies - not to mention any number of companies that claim to be blockchain businesses. 

I’m more intrigued with Bitcoin and a few others, and I can’t wait to see how this near-term test works out because it could actually be beneficial. Meanwhile, a major hedge fund guy announced he was delaying his Bitcoin fund, but he will still make it happen just as Goldman Sachs (GS) will build out its Bitcoin trading desk.

I’m not into Bitcoin now, but I think there is a major niche for cryptocurrency and blockchain businesses that could change the entire financial world.  Right now, it’s the Wild West and it is tough to figure out the winners from the pretenders unless they change their names overnight.

If your local bagel store becomes a Bitcoin/Blockchain company this week, I wouldn’t chase the stock.

Today’s Session

There was no traffic at 6am heading to downtown New York so there will be less volume, which has its pros and cons, making it difficult to measure the message of the market. That being said, lots of buzz about retail sales over the weekend, and the potential for this week to rival Black Friday, as folks go to return items and spend gift cards.