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Afternoon Note

Holiday Spending Looks Promising

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/22/2017 1:49 PM
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Consumer confidence holds steady coming in slightly ahead of consensus at 98.5. The sentiment cooled from a 13-year high reported in October.  University of Michigan survey saw expected gain of 2.7% in real consumption expenditures in 2018 which is the best run-up to the holiday shopping season in a decade.  This bodes very well for our thesis that the consumer will open their wallets for holiday purchases.

Survey of Consumers

Nov 2017

Oct 2017

Nov 2016

Index

98.5

100.7

93.8

Current

113.5

116.5

107.3

Expectations

88.9

90.5

85.2

 

We won't have to wait long for some early sales figures with Black Friday and Cyber Monday on tap.

Oil prices gain terrain after U.S. crude weekly declined in line with expectations. The EIA reported crude supplies fell by 1.9 million barrels, much less than expected.  Gasoline stockpiles were unchanged, while distillate stockpiles edged up by 300,000 barrels, consensus expected a rise of 737,000 barrels for gasoline and a decline of 1.16 million barrels for distillates.

EIA Petroleum Inventories

 

Actual

Expected

   Crude Oil

-1.90 million

-2.11 million

   Gasoline

+44,000

+737,000

   Distillates

+300,000

-1.16 million

 

Let’s keep our powder dry. Happy Thanksgiving!


 

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