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Morning Commentary

Where Are Your Animal Spirits?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/29/2017 9:51 AM
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Question of the Week

Will the GOP tax plan ever become law? If so, what's the ultimate business rate going to be?

Post your answer below.

Yesterday, the stock of the session was Roku, which closed up 68% from its initial public offering price.  The company is the leader in streaming gadgets, but it faces goliaths Amazon, Apple and Alphabet.  Obviously, investors think the company will continue to win.  The action and indications this morning also point to an appetite for good IPOs.

The other stock of the day was McDonald’s, which enjoyed its best session in months in part to new products, but also a winner from the GOP tax plan- the company paid an effective rate of 32% last year.

Despite record highs for major stock indices, soaring GDP, and upticks in business investments, one group is missing out on the animal spirits – individual investors.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, in the past week, bullishness plunged -6.8% to just 33%.   Bearishness is near a year and half low, so that’s the not the problem. It’s the 38% of investors in the middle.   This perpetual indifference means millions continue to miss the rally. 

It’s fine to cheer from the sidelines, but I think its nuts to continue to miss out especially as all the ingredients to justify a bull market are coming together.

The fact so many folks continue to miss out on rally could explain this morning’s income and spending data.  Both matched consensus, but it moved at a rather pedestrian pace.   I continue to think there is a mismatch with spending data in general, but consumers are looking for the greenlight to spend more. 

 

Not forcing the issue at the open.


Comments
I want to be optimistic and say yes, the tax plan/cuts will be law, however the Congress (led by Republicans) have shown themselves to be unable to agree and pass any significant legislation.

mike dossett on 9/29/2017 11:49:48 AM

Corporate Rate 20%

E G Halstead on 9/29/2017 12:18:58 PM
We'll see a new rate of <30% once the wrinkles get ironed out.

Patricia Flynn on 9/29/2017 4:09:08 PM
 

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