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Morning Commentary

Mixed at Best

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/3/2017 9:39 AM
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average cracked 22,000 in yet another record-setting session on Wednesday, while the S&P 500 marked time as the NASDAQ gave up earlier session gains. Obviously, it is disappointing after strong earnings results from Apple (AAPL), and it is certainly a yellow flag. On a cautionary note, however, the ADP jobs report was simply okay but the trend isn’t worrisome.  Since rocketing to 268,000 in January, the ADP jobs report started to ebb and is now in a steeper decline.  

Last month, 178,000 jobs were created (180,000 from the private sector).

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/July/NER/images/charts/Change-in-Nonfarm-Private-Employment-July-2017.gif

The 178,000 - job breakdown:

Small (50,000)

Medium (83,000)

Large (45,000)

I was hoping for stronger goods-producing numbers, but manufacturing lost 4,000 while mining only gained 3,000 and construction had 6,000.

Tomorrow, we’ll get the official jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It could come in better than expected, but I like the ADP report as a source; I just wasn’t thrilled with the July results.

Trends

Autopilot is still in effect, but it switched to Dow Jones Blue Chips, while the Tech-driven NASDAQ can’t maintain any upside momentum. I’m looking for the momentum when all the major equity indices, including the Russell 2000, rally in unison and start attracting fresh sideline cash. By the same token, the market doesn’t collapse and the general bias is to the upside.  

Today’s Session

This morning the Nasdaq and Dow are green, and earnings reports are still moving the market. The Dow will test it it can keep at its 22,000 mark.

Applications for unemployment benefits fell and this could be a good sign of the labor market’s strength.  Initial jobless claims from late June fell 5,000 to 240,000.

Not forcing the issue this morning with new idea.


Comments
We miss you on FOX.

Sandra Black on 8/3/2017 1:50:55 PM
Hi Charles, Wanted to let you know that our family misses you on Fox. We are praying that you will be back soon.

PAULA SLIPPY on 8/4/2017 11:53:47 AM
 

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