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Morning Commentary

Forget the Noise

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/12/2017 9:49 AM
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Well, the wild world of politics continues to drown out more evidence the economy is on the move.  While job openings drifted lower to 5.7 million, the more important hard data parts of the JOLTS report show underpinnings of an economy on the move.

With quits significantly higher, households could be prepared to participate more as wage increases should begin to pick up the pace.  Of course, there are issues including that skills gap, which isn’t about college but about abilities to use new-aged machinery and tools.

Even the NFIB, which saw improvement in applicants with few of no qualifications, point to this as a serious problem that has gotten decidedly worse in recent years.

Today, we’ll see what Janet Yellen says about the jobs market, especially quits, which rank prominently on her so-called dashboard.   I would like the Fed to continue to talk about allowing accommodation to run off but only against the backdrop of an improving economy.  By the same token, I hope the Fed stops telling us lower cable bills are the only reason for signs of deflation.

In addition to Yellen’s testimony, watch for government data on petroleum inventory levels.  Despite massive drawdowns in the last two months, crude has had trouble putting the brakes on its slide.  Last night, the API report showed large draws:

Crude, as a proxy for the economy, is difficult because there are so many suppliers; and, technically it could always outstrip demand.  But the recent draw downs in the United States is a positive reflection of the domestic economy. 

There are so many positive signs out there – if you aren’t feeling them then make a stronger effort to get out into the job market.  But many of you are seeing and feeling it but not positioned to be rewarded.   This is the time – own great American Companies – make your portfolio great again and change your life over the course of time.

Today’s Session

Early text from Janet Yellen’s testimony put an extra boost in pre-opening trading and technology is looking to make a huge move in part to Amazon’s ‘Prime Day’ success.   The session that sees all three major equity indices close at new highs on improved volume will be the ultimate buy signal, but make sure you are in the mix before.

 


Comments
The rising % of unqualified applicants for jobs is of course a concern, but it has to be seen in the light of the much tougher requirements for jobs in the technical area. Often they are so specific and high level that finding a qualified person is like panning for gold. But even an auto mechanic today has technical requirements far beyond anything ever seen before the last decade or two, and that will only get worse as they move on to products like self-driving cars. Its tough even being a consumer today. Just try straightening out a problem with your bank, for example. You have to be half robot to deal with the multi-levels of their customer interface. It's hard to get through to talk to a human in many cases. Citibank closed all its NJ offices, save one in downtown Newark, an hour's drive from where I live. They should change the name to Robobank.

Miss you on Fox Business, bad boy. But 30 days of honest contrition should be more than enough public penance. We need you back.

Dennis Howard on 7/12/2017 10:30:51 AM
As the USA becomes an energy exporter, as well as being able to utilize domestic resources for domestic consumption rather than importing energy, should this modify the way look at "crude" as a proxy for the economy?
Thanks
Lew

Lewis W. Gloss on 7/12/2017 10:36:42 AM
You cannot scoop hot coal on to your lap without getting burned, friend. But your my favorite of Fox Business because you make me money, the others are only a megaphone for the lefty media. Hope you are back soon so I can tune back into Fox Business. Your subs suck.

D. Frazier on 7/12/2017 4:38:03 PM
 

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