It’s backward looking, but first quarter 2017 GDP released tomorrow could send a shiver down the spine of the nation if the Atlanta Fed’s model is correct and it comes in near zero growth (now 0.2%).  The latest disappointment was data on durable goods, which improved, but not at the rate anticipated.

Despite the spiraling GDP forecast for the first quarter, we are modelling for 3.5% growth in the current quarter, but that can change if consumers and businesses crawl into a foxhole.   I continue to see more than soft data pointing to a strong quarter, but it has to continue against a backdrop that doesn’t include a trade war (saber rattling is fine and needed), shooting match with North Korea (saber rattling is fine and needed) and some movement on the Trump Economic Agenda (I’m still okay with small bites to build momentum).

I love this period because it’s when we get a chance to shine, but the evidence of the handholding doesn’t come through for weeks or a couple of months, and often, we find folks sold because the herd was selling.  That’s one of the top three mistakes in investing.