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Morning Commentary

The Calm Now Comes the Storm
By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/8/2017 9:35 AM

It was another sloppy day for the market on Tuesday that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 29.58, NASDAQ -15.25, and the S&P 500 -15.25. The only sector not to finish lower was technology, which finished the session unchanged.

S&P 500 Index

-0.29%

 

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

-0.32%

 

Consumer Staples (XLP)

-0.13%

 

Energy (XLE)

-0.89%

 

Financials (XLF)

-0.28%

 

Health Care (XLV)

-0.70%

 

Industrials (XLI)

-0.29%

 

Materials (XLB)

-0.55%

 

Real Estate (XLRE)

-0.35%

 

Technology (XLK)

 

+0.00%

Utilities (XLU)

-0.06%

 
 

Interestingly, this was the 101st trading session where the S&P 500 didn’t decline more than one percentage point.  That is an extraordinary resolve for the market, but it is clear stocks are seeking a catalyst for the next move higher.

Yesterday was the first time President Trump verbally promised a massive tax cut (perhaps bigger than Reagan’s), and the market didn’t have a Pavlovian reaction (it was mentioned very late in the session).  Indecision should begin to ease with the release of the ADP jobs report this morning; of course, when the market opens on Friday, the rally will be ready to lift into its next orbit or yield gains if the jobs report is subpar.

Today’s Session

The ADP report just blew the cover off the ball coming in at 298,000 against consensus estimate of 188,000.   The great part of the report is men are going back to work.  Goods producing jobs increased 106,000, the highest ever for the ADP report driven by:

  • Mining +8,000
  • Construction +66,000
  • Manufacturing +32,000

We are combing through the numbers and will have more on the afternoon note, but this is HUGE!

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/February/NER/images/charts/Change-in-Nonfarm-Private-Employment-February-2017.gif


Comments
It is such a joy to have a president who understands business operations, instead of a community organizer. Until you have had to meet a payroll, you don't truly understand business. Trump's direction, combined with the recently unleashed American spirit, will drive this economy to levels not seen since the Reagan years.

Philip Morris on 3/8/2017 9:44:20 AM
I have to agree with Phil. It is ONE thing to delegate the responsibility of running a nation to others that you appoint to positons such as Labor Secretary (under Obama) and a TOTALLY DIFFERENT scenario when you KNOW how to "run a business" (large ones are even MORE challenging than managing/running a country) and actually "DIRECT" those around you (appointees/secretaries of various cabinet positions) and provide them with the "challenge" to help in "Making America GREAT Again." Thank you, Mr. Trump/Mr. President. NOW....go prove the naysayrs wrong!

James Warlin on 3/8/2017 11:54:24 AM
Great article, however I take issue with the statement that "men" are going back to work in these jobs. Women also work in these industries, so it's really "people" are going back to work.

B McGee on 3/8/2017 10:04:24 PM
I knew some folks would take issue with "men" but these are jobs overwhelmingly done by men and its also their absence in homes as key provided where they once were that is exacerbating issue like higher drug use. I've written about the modern day Rosie the Riveter and will in the future but its important to not be so PC we gloss over glaring problems in America. Charles V. Payne

Charles Payne on 3/9/2017 7:11:37 AM
PC is still alive and well! In America women control most of the wealth, live longer, are prettier,better educated and rising faster than men in entrepreneurship: and still they complain. Try being a woman in an Islamic Country then you have a real problem!

Garro on 3/10/2017 7:52:09 AM
 

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