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Morning Commentary

Hugs & Kisses

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/14/2017 9:30 AM
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It was another day for the record books as all the major indices closed at all-time highs on Monday.

Major Indices

Feb 13

Y-T-D

Dow Jones Industrial Average

+0.70%

+2.56%

S&P 500

+0.52%

+3.45%

NASDAQ Composite

+0.50%

+7.07%

Russell 2000

+0.20%

+2.60%

I heard the boo-birds coming out.  I can say firsthand that there isn’t an irrational exuberance as most individual investors, even the most ardent Trump voters, are still hesitant about owning a piece of the action. 

The notion of buying the dip is so farfetched that if you are using that as an excuse, it’s just a cop-out. I suspect many will wait for the market to rally even higher.  Ironically, the next dip might come on news later this summer when tax changes are actually pushed through, but not before.  Be that as it may, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a record run of consecutive sessions without moving more than 1% either way.

Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs) and equity mutual funds are also moving in a pedestrian manner, which is not in any way suggesting there’s a mad dash to get a piece of the action.

And yet, the message from the market is clear. There is something beneath the surface that speaks to the anticipation of growth, and not just in the United States. Last Friday, I pointed out the big moves in Caterpillar (CAT) and U.S. Steel (X), which put in a very impressive session on yesterday.

Also, it’s about the global metals move, which includes steel from around the world that speaks to a surge in demand beyond simple inventory rebuilding.

The Steel ETF (“SLX”) is up more than 10% in the past five sessions; 151% in the past 52-weeks, but it is still 58% below its highest point from 2008.  The following names are driving the index:

Additional Messages From The Market

Tech is a little tired.  Apple (AAPL) finally eclipsed its previous high point after a two-year detour. There just wasn’t a lot of oomph in the sector.

Restaurant stocks have been beaten up pretty good, in part to a massive food deflation, which has Americans rediscovering their kitchens again; it could now see a wave of consolidation. Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI) popped on takeover scuttlebutt, but there will be several deals.

Crude oil needs more convincing even after an increase in global demand estimates, and proof that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) isn’t cheating; still, crude oil continues to stumble. I think the key will be inventory levels in the United States.

Oil tanker stocks are acting great; and while there have been some false starts, this may be the year they come on stronger. Note, there is a difference between dry bulk and containers, both could have massive rebounds- it’s still a high risk.

Today's Session

The street awaits clues from the Fed on rates and administration polices

Equity futures have been unchanged all morning ahead of the start of two days of testimony by Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill.  I’m not sure today’s PPI report will change any decisions, but it must be accounted for in modelling that some will argue puts March in play or makes it “live.”  I’m very confident there will not be a hike in March, even as PPI came in well above consensus with its steepest monthly increase since September 2012.

 


Comments
Charles - I live in Arizona and there is not one news channel here (even BBC)that doesn't slam President Trump every day and say untrue things about him and his administration. How in the world is this going to make the average person feel about our country? Can't be good, that's for sure. If we only had some newspapers and TV stations that gave the other side of the coin, the people's attitude and exuberance would be noticeable. We live in a pathetic society when we only have ONE media delivering news to the public.

William S. Brown on 2/14/2017 9:58:30 AM
 

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