Morning Commentary
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) blinked and America's oil and gas companies won, and now the fracking miracle is set to lead an economic Renaissance. The Oil War damage went well beyond the shutdown oil rigs, which peaked at 1,931 oil and gas rigs in September 2014, to the most recent count of 593.
The industry was on fire as exploration and production (E&P) projects soared 274% in ten years to 2014 when Saudi Arabia decided to flood the world with crude.
Since then, the price of crude has come crashing down, putting hundreds of billions of dollars in projects offline and on the shelf – derailed for years.
In addition to E&P projects, the CapEx - food chain suffered in other areas as well.
US Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure Projects Million USD |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Refining |
13,000 |
13,520 |
14,602 |
Petrochemical |
6,000 |
6,720 |
7,728 |
Crude pipelines |
22,834 |
6,100 |
14,970 |
Natural gas pipelines |
8,344 |
3,100 |
5,000 |
Transportation |
2,750 |
3,163 |
2,400 |
Miscellaneous |
4,800 |
3,840 |
2,400 |
Total |
285,620 |
182,445 |
136,133 |
Cheap Gas - Not the Answer
I know that for a while, many people thought crashing oil prices meant cheap gas and that it would somehow become the magic elixir for the economy. That was always a false premise as the price for crude is typically determined by supply and demand. And the strength of the economy determines the latter.
However, this time around, there was something more insidious at play. Crude prices were artificially driven down by Saudi Arabia in an effort to derail the fracking miracle in America.
Sooner or later, it dawns on a lot of folks; even top-notch economists think that it’s actually better to have jobs than to save a couple bucks at the pump. Boy was the fracking boom creating jobs, great paying jobs, mostly in America’s heartland where construction of wells and pipelines added billions to the economy.
In fact, the nation couldn’t keep up with the demand of skilled construction and oil industry workers, including welders. According to the American Welding Society in 1988, there were 570,000 professional welders, and that number slipped to 360,000 by 2012. Apparently, there will be a 290,000 welder deficit by 2020.
It’s not only welders. The nation was already positioned for a massive worker shortage (known in the industry as the Great Crew Change) as older workers retire without enough skilled workers to replace them. In many ways, this is a good problem to have, and the opposite of those workers sitting idle because a Middle East ally decides to put them out of business.
According to the American petroleum Institute (API), the industry needs to hire 600,000 workers over the next 20 years.
However, with less government money and resources going to crony clean energy projects, the nation can focus on unlocking all its fossil fuel potential, which means we’ll cry all the way to the bank about a lack of welders.
Just a word to the wise - if your children have trouble with math and are not cut out to be salesman, consider getting them a dirty-fingernail skill because we won the Great Oil War with Saudi Arabia, and now we need workers.
The OPEC Deal
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce 1.2 million barrels a day by January, including the following cuts:
Consumer Income and Spending
Personal income spiked in October, picking up on the momentum that has been growing. Spending was revised for September, but it came in below expectations as savings edged back to 6.0%. This combination points to the potential of consumers to come to the rescue, a reminder that the hard-learned lessons of the Great Recession won’t fade quickly.
Moreover, I think the animal spirits that I have been seeing since the election will materialize in the November report. Note: retailers have been bullish with the current quarter guidance and seasonal hiring, with several even guiding for a stronger growth in 2017.
Income & Consumption October 2016 |
Prior Revised |
Consensus |
Actual |
Personal Income - M/M change |
0.3 % |
0.4 % |
0.6 % |
Consumer Spending - M/M change |
0.5 % |
0.7 % |
0.3 % |
Today’s Session
The big deal this morning has Parker Hannifin acquiring Clarcor for $4.3 billion in cash and assumption of debt. Several reasons this deal stands out includes the fact that it’s a cash deal hinting that PH sees its shares as more valuable then cash, and it’s a deal in the industrial space where diversified machinery stocks have been raging higher.
I like the way futures are building momentum into the open, but we are not going to force the issue. There are great fundamental building blocks being put into place so be ready. If you are not on our service yet, contact your account representative or email info@wstreet.com to get started today.
Comments |
The key question: How long does any realistic person believe that OPEC will stick to its new restrictions. They never have in the past. Why should they start now? Dennis Howard mbaforlife@gmail.com on 12/1/2016 1:06:40 PM |
I'm afraid that the shortage of blue-collar skilled labor will only result in more immigrants rather than putting Americans to work. Phillip Gossage on 12/1/2016 1:41:43 PM |
TRADE SCHOOLS in these skill areas should be selling to High School graduates a story of good earning potential and financial freedom as opposed to piling up debt for a simple undergraduate Liberal Arts degree where there is no demand. I think a combo program along the lines of the first two years of study to include history, economics, basic finance, IT and acctg shortened and front loaded on a skilled trades degree would offer the person and our Country a bright future Garro on 12/1/2016 6:31:22 PM |
Cheap oil can still be a plus it lowers transportation costs, travel costs, some manufacturing costs and so forth. The key is the reason why the price was low and in this case as pointed out it was because of recession in this case global. So again it isn't so much low or high priced oil being good or bad it is why behind the price that is good or bad. Douglas Eatough on 12/1/2016 7:55:37 PM |
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