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Morning Commentary

First Bump In The Road

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/29/2016 9:35 AM

Yesterday was the first real bump in the road for the Trump Rally. The market struggled to gain traction, and some names and sectors absorbed big hits. In addition, banks were under a fair amount of pressure and Vulcan Materials (VMC) suffered a 5.7% decline. The stock changed hands at $106 on October 7th and went parabolic after the election, which spiked all the way up to $136.00.  A 50% retracement of that move would land the stock at $121, where I think it would be a screaming buy.

Another sign of investors' doubt came courtesy of the energy sector. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up 2%, but the energy sector suffered the largest loss among S&P 500 sectors.  Although energy was down 1.5%, it’s still the biggest winning sector for the year. Perhaps investors decided it was wise to ring the register rather than put all their hopes into Saudi Arabia and Russia cobbling together a crude production deal.

Furthermore, underscoring the cautious nature of yesterday’s session was the 2% spike in the utilities sector, building on the momentum that began last week.

Of course, the spike in anxiety is not just about the Trump Rally stalling; this is also jobs report week, and there is always a fair amount of fretting.

Key Support Levels

On that note, key support for the major indices and possible entry points on weakness include:

Meanwhile, if you’re afraid to chase winners, consider the news after the bell.

United Health (UNH), up 29% YTD, surged on strong 2017 guidance.

Thor Industries (THO), maker of recreational vehicles popped on a massive earnings beat; that stock is already up 61% this year, it will be higher this morning.  (By the way, this is the ultimate consumer discretionary stock; it’s an area I think will excel in 2017, so let’s make sure to have exposure.)

Today’s Session

The market is going to open slightly higher with a cautiousness that belies the continued string of stronger-than-expected economic data. We learned that Cyber Monday was a record at $3.45 billion, up 12.1% from last year, and third quarter GDP leaped to 3.2% from initial read of 2.9%. The street was looking for an improvement to 3.0%.

There is serious economic momentum that would warrant the kind of action from the Fed that shouldn’t harm stocks.

 


Comments
Combo of GDP, Consumer, & earnings deserve a modest pullback for Santa. Incredible time to be a retail rat! A lot of good names to choose from:)

Bob Waddell on 11/29/2016 10:36:38 AM
 

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