As I mentioned this morning, it’s becoming abundantly clear the market is rubbernecking the election and beginning to fret over the impact of the outcome.   I’m saying we might have the answer on Monday when Florida election officials reveal the results of in-person early voting over the weekend.  While conventional wisdom holds that Donald Trump must win the Sunshine state, to win it all, he must also win a few other states too close to call including two unlikely swing states:  North Carolina and Iowa (he and Mrs. Clinton are in the state today).

Florida

Early Voting:

GOP 1,171,142

DEM 1,156,793

Note: Democrats lead in early voting below the pace of 2012, but there may be extenuating circumstances, including that this cycle began on a weekday rather than weekend like in 2012.  I think we might be able to call Florida on Monday for lean/win for Trump if there is not a huge spike from black and Hispanic voters over the weekend.  Keep in mind, Obama lost on Election Day but had built a lead in early voting, and polls suggest Trump will be a big winner on Nov 8^th. 

In 2012, the first day of in person early voting gave Dems a 13% point lead, this year its only 8%.

This is why Obama is in Florida today hoping to spark what’s known locally as a Soul to Poll turnout.  J-Lo and Mark Anthony are also looking to help with the Hispanic turnout next week- I think separately. 

North Carolina

Iowa

Both candidates are in the state, but I felt it was a lock for Trump a month ago, so maybe it’s not.

Market

As for the overall market, it’s encouraging that the major indices are higher, and while not convincing, it’s against the backdrop of data that adds fuel to the rate-hike fire.  Moreover, the punishment for companies that missed, or provided subpar guidance, is devastating. 

I continue to say good news will be good news, and it’s the only thing that can lift the major averages higher.