Afternoon Note
The major indexes are mixed at midday. NYSE advancers (72%) outpace decliners (25%) on 78% up volume. Overall volume is fair.
The Dow is finding resistance at the 50-day moving average (18,245) once again. It has not managed to trade solidly above that key moving average since early September. The S&P 500 also trades below its 50-day moving average at 2151, The NASDAQ is barely in the red at the moment having a mixed day near breakeven after gapping over its 50-day moving average yesterday. Intel’s (INTC) weighs heavy, down 6% today on very high volume after reporting earnings and forecasting lower 4th quarter sales.
Oil is at a one-year high after the EIA data showed U.S inventories declined by 5.2 million barrels to a total of 468.7 million barrels as refinery activity fell and the country imported less crude. This is the sixth week out of seven that supplies have declined. WTI is trading at $51.65 a barrel, a 15-month high. Many are now forecasting 2017 oil to be between $50-60 a barrel. Higher oil prices is helping the energy sector move higher.
More data out on the housing market today. Mortgage applications for the week ending October 14, increased 0.6% compared to the prior week. Mortgage rates haven’t impacted refinancing significantly as the index was only down 1% and comprised 61.5% of the total applications, but down from 62.4%. Meanwhile, purchases increased 3%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage for $417,000 or was up 3.73% from 3.68%, the highest level since June.
\We also got the latest on housing starts and permits for September residential construction. Starts in September declined 9% to 1,047,000, and is 11.9% from the prior year rate of 1,189,000. However, the overall results might now be as bad as it appears. Single-family starts were actually higher than in August by 8.1% at 783,000, and the area of housing that is in real need as there has been a lack of inventory in both new and existing housing. The real decline this month was in multifamily (5+) starts to 250,000 unit. But, this segment has been on fire over the past few years. Perhaps, people are starting to move away from apartment leaving, or there is simply too much supply.
Building permits were up 6.3% from the revised August rate of 1,152,000, and 8.5% higher than a year ago. This is really good news and should help in time with supply issues. Single Family housing was 739,000 and multi-family 449,000.
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3/13/2024 9:51 AM | ALL SO EPIC |
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