Morning Commentary
Yesterday, the market closed with little change after opening under a fair amount of pressure. I suspect there was some smart traders buying the dip. For the most part, it was a very boring session except for Whole Foods (WFM) whose shares surged on 18 million shares, which is 200% above the daily average. The stock is changing hands at its lowest point since early 2011. So, it’s possible that a deal could be brewing.
As for the broad market, it was something of a head-scratcher. The U.S. dollar moved higher on a recent wave of better-than-expected economic data; and yet, the Atlanta Fed has marked the third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all the way down to 2.2%. Considering the initial assumption of a 3.6% growth, it’s come down a long way, dropping on just about every economic release over the past two months.
The sudden British Pound crisis has helped the dollar, but if the Dollar Index closes above $97.50, it would be clear that it’s reacting to domestic influences more so than a potential hard British exit next year.
Bond yields also have been acting as if the economy is getting to the point where higher rates would be in order. However, keep an eye on 1.80 on the ten-year bond where it sees resistance and 2.00%, which breaks through the long-term trend line.
Date |
Major Releases |
GDP |
PCE |
3-Aug |
Initial |
3.6 |
3.6 |
29-Aug |
Personal Income and Advanced GDP |
3.5 |
3.8 |
2-Sep |
Employ. Situation and Foreign Trade |
3.5 |
3.5 |
6-Sep |
ISM Non-Manufacturing |
3.4 |
3.4 |
9-Sep |
Wholesale trade |
3.3 |
3.4 |
13-Sep |
Monthly Treasury Statement |
3.2 |
3.4 |
15-Sep |
Retail trade, Industrial production |
3.0 |
3.1 |
16-Sep |
Consumer Price Index |
2.9 |
3.0 |
20-Sep |
Housing starts |
2.9 |
3.0 |
22-Sep |
Existing-home sales |
2.9 |
3.0 |
26-Sep |
New home sales/prices/const. costs |
2.8 |
3.0 |
28-Sep |
Advance Durable Manufacturing |
2.8 |
3.0 |
30-Sep |
Advanced Economic Indicators |
2.4 |
2.7 |
5-Oct |
Autos, International Trade & ISM Non-Manufacturing |
2.2 |
2.9 |
GDP Model Atlanta Fed |
Of course, the main reason why the market couldn’t gain any traction is the jobs report, which is out this morning. Conventional wisdom says that the number needs to be 175,000, which wouldn’t be too hot or too cold; I think stocks would cheer for a number north of 200,000, even if it’s not the knee-jerk reaction.
US Employment Trends |
Monthly Average |
Yearly Average |
2008 |
-292,000 |
-3.5 million |
2009 |
-416,000 |
-5.0 million |
2010 |
92,000 |
+1.1 million |
2011 |
166,000 |
+2.0 million |
2012 |
183,000 |
+2.2 million |
2013 |
192,000 |
+2.3 million |
2014 |
258,000 |
+3.1 million |
2015 |
233,000 |
+2.8 million |
2016 |
181,000 |
+1.4 million |
Politicians and economists are actually saying that the fact monthly job growth peaked in 2014, is evidence of the nation moving closer to ‘full employment,’ to which I say – ‘preposterous.’
Today’s Session
The jobs report came in a little less than expected and while we still have to crunch numbers, its clear the story of two Americas and two economies, remains the main story. 156,000 (167,000 private sector) keeps the trend of fading job growth in place.
The market will have a tough time digesting this number right away. I don’t see how it helps the Fed rate hike argument and it doesn’t go far enough to justify market valuations across the board. I love that people came back into the labor force- as discouraging as it can be, you must hit the bricks if you don’t have a job.
Honeywell getting hit on lower guidance for the third quarter, as management now sees negative organic growth and margins at 17.5 from prior guidance of 18.9.
Overall, the number should not hurt the market but its leaves all questions coming into the session in place.
Tweet |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
4/8/2024 7:19 AM | IT’S ECLIPSE DAY |
4/5/2024 1:51 PM | Higher and Cheaper |
4/5/2024 9:23 AM | MARKETS REEL ON BIDEN’S ISRAEL ULTIMATUM |
4/4/2024 1:42 PM | Stocks Bounce |
4/4/2024 9:31 AM | ESCAPING GRAVITY = ESCAPING REALITY? |
4/3/2024 1:41 PM | Cuts Not Soon |
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