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Morning Commentary

The Most Important Jobs Read

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/7/2016 9:40 AM

Yesterday, the market closed with little change after opening under a fair amount of pressure. I suspect there was some smart traders buying the dip. For the most part, it was a very boring session except for Whole Foods (WFM) whose shares surged on 18 million shares, which is 200% above the daily average.  The stock is changing hands at its lowest point since early 2011.  So, it’s possible that a deal could be brewing.

As for the broad market, it was something of a head-scratcher. The U.S. dollar moved higher on a recent wave of better-than-expected economic data; and yet, the Atlanta Fed has marked the third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) all the way down to 2.2%.  Considering the initial assumption of a 3.6% growth, it’s come down a long way, dropping on just about every economic release over the past two months.

The sudden British Pound crisis has helped the dollar, but if the Dollar Index closes above $97.50, it would be clear that it’s reacting to domestic influences more so than a potential hard British exit next year.

Bond yields also have been acting as if the economy is getting to the point where higher rates would be in order. However, keep an eye on 1.80 on the ten-year bond where it sees resistance and 2.00%, which breaks through the long-term trend line.

Date

Major Releases

GDP

PCE

3-Aug

Initial

3.6

3.6

29-Aug

Personal Income and Advanced GDP

3.5

3.8

2-Sep

Employ. Situation and Foreign Trade

3.5

3.5

6-Sep

ISM Non-Manufacturing

3.4

3.4

9-Sep

Wholesale trade

3.3

3.4

13-Sep

Monthly Treasury Statement

3.2

3.4

15-Sep

Retail trade, Industrial production

3.0

3.1

16-Sep

Consumer Price Index

2.9

3.0

20-Sep

Housing starts

2.9

3.0

22-Sep

Existing-home sales

2.9

3.0

26-Sep

New home sales/prices/const. costs

2.8

3.0

28-Sep

Advance Durable Manufacturing

2.8

3.0

30-Sep

Advanced Economic Indicators

2.4

2.7

5-Oct

Autos, International Trade & ISM Non-Manufacturing

2.2

2.9

GDP Model Atlanta Fed

 

Of course, the main reason why the market couldn’t gain any traction is the jobs report, which is out this  morning.  Conventional wisdom says that the number needs to be 175,000, which wouldn’t be too hot or too cold; I think stocks would cheer for a number north of 200,000, even if it’s not the knee-jerk reaction.

 

US Employment Trends

Monthly Average

Yearly Average

2008

-292,000

-3.5 million

2009

-416,000

-5.0 million

2010

92,000

+1.1 million

2011

166,000

+2.0 million

2012

183,000

+2.2 million

2013

192,000

+2.3 million

2014

258,000

+3.1 million

2015

233,000

+2.8 million

2016

181,000

+1.4 million

 

Politicians and economists are actually saying that the fact monthly job growth peaked in 2014, is evidence of the nation moving closer to ‘full employment,’ to which I say – ‘preposterous.’

Today’s Session

The jobs report came in a little less than expected and while we still have to crunch numbers, its clear the story of two Americas and two economies, remains the main story. 156,000 (167,000 private sector) keeps the trend of fading job growth in place.

The market will have a tough time digesting this number right away. I don’t see how it helps the Fed rate hike argument and it doesn’t go far enough to justify market valuations across the board.  I love that people came back into the labor force- as discouraging as it can be, you must hit the bricks if you don’t have a job.

Honeywell getting hit on lower guidance for the third quarter, as management now sees negative organic growth and margins at 17.5 from prior guidance of 18.9.

Overall, the number should not hurt the market but its leaves all questions coming into the session in place.


 

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