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Afternoon Note

Building Up a Head of Steam

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/5/2016 1:37 PM

More signs the economy is building up a head of steam in the second half of the year from two key economic data points this morning.

The Institute for Supply Management’s ISM report showed a major surge in business activity and new orders along with a pop in employment.

 

ISM Service Economy Report

Index

Change

Business Activity

60.3

+8.5%

New Orders

60.0

+8.6%

Employment

57.2

+6.5%

 
                                             
          ISM

Factory Orders seemed ho-hum upon release, but a closer look at business investment indicates impressive increases now over the past three months.  Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 0.9% in August after improving 0.8% July and 0.5% June.

Oil has broken above $50/barrel on the 5th straight weekly EIA report of declining inventories. Today's report indicated a decline of 3 million barrels.  The $50 level is a key support/resistance level. The energy sector is up 1.67% today.

The financial sector is also rallying, up 1.5% on the strong data. The Financial Select SPDR (XLF) has made a convincing break above its 50-day moving average at $19.35.

The major indexes are trading at the highs of the day here at midday.  Market internals are solid with up volume strong on both the NYSE (76%) and NASDAQ  (78%) and 105 new NYSE highs along with 171 new highs on the NASDAQ. Both the Dow and SP500 charts are making consolidation formations that are ripe for a breakout move.


Comments
Noticed large drop today in interest sensitive stocks like utilities. Any buys here? When the 10 year bond was at what I would call a 'Normalized Rate' of 4-5%, utilities were much higher. I looked at ERH as a representative example: on 5/1/08 ERH was $26. and the 10-yr was 4.05; on 3/1/09 ERH was $9.40 and the 10-yr was 2.68. 10-yr now 1.716 and ERH is $11.94. Is this an over-reaction? And, our some names like ERH buys?

TOM HOLCOMB on 10/5/2016 5:02:27 PM
 

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