Janet Yellen took a victory lap in her written statement with a bucolic view of the economy:

“The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession posed daunting new challenges for central banks around the world and spurred innovations in the design, implementation, and communication of monetary policy. With the U.S. economy now nearing the Federal Reserve's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability, this conference provides a timely opportunity to consider how the lessons we learned are likely to influence the conduct of monetary policy in the future. U.S. economic activity continues to expand, led by solid growth in household spending.”

Reading the Tea Leaves

Ironically, Yellen also made the pitch for keeping the new tools developed by the Fed to combat the Great Recession.  That means up to $2 trillion ready to go, and probably, more special and secret plans for big banks. This line of reasoning explains why the market initially sold off, but then rebounded even higher, and now seems cautiously optimistic. Yellen talking out of both sides of her mouth, and not zeroing in on a timetable of hikes, has allowed market bulls a sigh of relief.

Tepid Confidence

The latest iteration from the University of Michigan on confidence shows expectations down significantly from a year ago which suggests a second half economic surge would be a surprise to Main Street.